SDR #18 – If We Had A Gold Based SDR !?

So let us assume we have a new international currency that is supported by gold…a gold based SDR !

I have taken a couple of minutes and updated my Gold price prediction chart based upon total SDR allocations to date by the IMF, the depreciating value of $US measured in SDRs and the current price of gold. With no recent IMF allocations (SDR invented and given away) we remain on track to gold rising to the target levels but it is taking alittle longer than an orderly 3 year adjustment. It appears it might be taking 5 years but the trend line is there?!

SDR Charts JPG 2012
So the Gold model price remains on track meaning

If you are strong on the US dollar then maybe $2000/ounce is a good target price for gold and if you are not so strong on the US dollar then maybe $3000/ounce might be the future target price of gold … all based upon the assumption that there are no further SDR allocations. Both of these price levels are no where near the modelled mania price of near $5000/ounce.

Hey … this is not intended as financial advice.

Just trying to understand if this SDR mechanism can save the financial world !!!???

SDR #16 – Update On 2010 IMF Reforms and Increased SDR Quotas

 

Yes we are talking about an update on IMF Executive Board and SDR Quota Reforms which are still pending from so-called agreements made in 2010 !!

On December 15, 2010, the Board of Governors, the Fund’s highest decision-making body, approved a package of far-reaching reforms of the Fund’s quotas and governance, completing the 14th General Review of Quotas. Once the reform package is approved by member countries (it includes an amendment to the Articles of Agreement that requires acceptance by three-fifths of the members having 85 percent of the total voting power) and implemented, it will result in an unprecedented 100 percent increase in total quotas and a major realignment of quota shares to better reflect the changing relative weights of the IMF’s member countries in the global economy.

http://www.imf.org/external/np/exr/facts/quotas.htm

Basically these reforms put more BRIC/Emerging nations on the Executive Board and increase/realign country IMF quotas thus giving China the third largest quota once approved.

As of September 25, 2012, 109 members having 66.58 percent of total voting power had accepted the amendment.

http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/misc/consents.htm#a1

The final changes cannot go through without the support of the US, which holds 17.69 percent of the voting power. But the US Congress must approve the changes, as they require additional funding for the IMF, and it is highly unlikely to do so before the November presidential and congressional elections.

http://www.arabnews.com/imf-closer-passing-reforms-deadline-looms

The Obama administration is lobbying for the support of conservative Republicans in Congress to endorse its pledged contribution to the IMF’s $365 billion increase in its “quotas”, or permanent capital resources, ahead of the Fund’s target date of October.   The US is slated to roughly double its current quota level of about $65 billion, though the administration has yet to make a formal request to Congress for it.

http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2012/03/27/geithner-urges-congress-to-back-imf-world-bank/

“There’s a sort of irony that the country that has initially spearheaded the current reform reform package is now de facto blocking its approval,” Domenico Lombardi, a former IMF board member, told AFP.   According to Lombardi, the United States was balking at raising China’s voting power mostly because of “increasing frictions,” especially in the trade arena, between the two countries.   But according to several people familiar with the situation, the Obama administration has shied away from putting the reforms to a vote in Congress amid the politically charged run-up to the November 6 presidential and congressional election.

http://www.cigionline.org/articles/2012/08/us-proves-stumbling-block-imf-reform

So the USA  has not yet approved the amendments and hence are holding up the process !  So what are they waiting for ?   Is there more to the story ?

As per my previous article  ….

http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/archives/4000

when the US congress approves these amendments there is the potential for a large deflationary event to be unleased upon the globe as IMF SDR Quotas come due.  It will be the equivalent of a huge one time global tax on nations, to some degree related to country GDP.

Odds are this approval by congress will not be happening by the IMF’s Annual meeting, this Oct 2012 in Japan, as was previously the goal.  The economy is just not ready for it.

So what we might instead see, in the near term, is another “allocation” of SDRs to help some of the poorer nations actually pay for their new quotas when they finally come due ??!!  Does that make sense ?  Create (or in IMF lingo allocate) SDRs so that nations can use or even borrow another nation’s  SDRs to pay for their new SDR quotas ?  Would that work ?

http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/archives/6811

The games new world order governments might play ?!

 

 

 

 

 

#11 SDR – Rumours Start of Another IMF SDR Allocation

 

They Say The SDR Is As Good As Gold

“The SDR was created by the IMF in 1969 to support the Bretton Woods fixed exchange rate system. A country participating in this system needed official reserves—government or central bank holdings of gold and widely accepted foreign currencies—that could be used to purchase the domestic currency in foreign exchange markets, as required to maintain its exchange rate.  But the international supply of two key reserve assets—gold and the U.S. dollar—proved inadequate for supporting the expansion of world trade and financial development that was taking place. Therefore, the international community decided to create a new international reserve asset under the auspices of the IMF.”

http://www.imf.org/external/np/exr/facts/sdr.htm

Today the world or should we say that currently Europe needs alot more reserve currency and where might they get it ?  Obviously you print it up and hand it out equally according to say the country GDP or some other quota formula like the EFSF.  Appears that might be alittle too radical an idea for the ECB.  However not for the IMF !

Here is today’s Reuters rumour mill … but it catches all the essentials.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/11/04/uk-g20-imf-idUKTRE7A25YF20111104

followed by this recent zero hedge article which contains

“In light of the above how gold is not trading north of $2000 is still beyond us, although whether by manipulation or market inefficiency, we can not complain: it is easier to buy gold at $1,750 than at $7,150. Yet not even we could possibly predict just how far the global ponzi cartel would fall to extend the status quo by a few extra months.”

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/because-central-banks-just-arent-enough-g-20-will-ask-imf-print-reserve-currency

People Cannot Own SDRs …. but they Can Own Gold

For more background on SDRs check out my past SDR related posts starting with this one.

http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/archives/1640

 

Trim growth expectations

Things are always changing.
But, where some things have room to change endlessly;
others reach a limit, where the only way is back.
Audio -

16:38 min.

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Who will it be~?

I think `the economy` (if it really exists), is something that no one has ever understood….
….and it did not matter, after all, everything was going well enough and if things did seem to go wrong…….well, someone did something and it all turned out well enough.
Now, so many things are going wrong, that it is rather more important to find the people who may know what is wrong.
It won’t be one person. It won’t be a group of people (because no one knows enough to know which people to make up the group).
It won’t be `the normal suspects`……that is for sure.
Who will it be~?
I suspect that no one will ever be found, but `the normal suspects` will go on playing.
The problem is, that now, their playing is not neutral…It may be a matter of life and death.
[audio:http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/Wed5Oct-111.mp3|titles=Wed5Oct '11(1)]
[audio:http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/Wed5Oct-112.mp3|titles=Wed5Oct '11(2)]
19:30 min.

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The day the music died

Well, I have been in such a swirl today, I don’t remember what is in the presentation.
(I know I did not have time to put the numbers on it…Sorry~!)
*Richard has now fixed OTP. It was a problem with GoDaddy server. (round of applause for the man Richard~!)

I have seen `the markets` and it looks like they did not like The Bernanke’s `Twist` thing.
`Twist and shout` or `Twist and pout`~?
Still no one knows how to sort out Europe (although I did link to Roubini who has had a stab at it~!
One thing……..No…Two things must always be come back to…….No…….Three things -
There are three things we must always come back to -
1. Debts stay written on bits of paper and someone is counting on them being `paid in full`.
2. Much of that debt was taken out on the understanding that life was going to all sooper-dooper.
3. No one seems to know the way back to sooper-dooper-land~!
[audio:http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/Fri23Sept-11.mp3|titles=Fri23Sept '11]
12:46 min.

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