Bernanke Unveils ‘State of the Economy’ Report (partial transcript from C-SPAN)

long-term rising oil price concern
WASHINGTON, DC
Tuesday, March 1, 2011

Senator Mark Kirk, R-Illinois
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke

Opposition to State bailout? Accelerated borrowing to bail out States? Deferring payment from States on loans made by the Federal government?

It is a Congressional matter.

1:56:12

K: In your testimony on page five, “We are considering providing additional monetary accommodation through further asset purchases. In November, the committee announced that it intended to purchase an additional $600 billion in long-term Treasury securities in the middle of this year.”

In more layman’s terms, you’re talking about lending money to the U.S. government? Correct?

B: Well, not exactly, because we are buying these securities on the secondary market. So, somebody has already lent the money directly. But, yes, we are holding government debt.

K: My point exactly. Sec. 14 of the Federal Reserve Act legally prevents you from buying newly issued securities, which in layman’s terms would be lending directly to the the U.S. government.

B: That’s why we are not doing that.

K: Right, but instead what yu do is others lending to the U.S. government and then you buy their loans.

B: Well, we do that all the time, and even in most normal conditions.

K: Correct. The CRS says in modern times the Fed has always held Treasury securities as part of normal operations. But, now under QE2, it’s a $600 billion commitment? But the CRS goes on to say, “But, none-the-less, the Fed’s purchase of Treasury securities on Federal budget is similar to monetization, whether the Fed buys securities on the secondary market or directly from Treasury. When the Fed holds Treasury securities, Treasury must pay interest to the Fed as it would to any private investor. These interest payments, after expenses, become part of the profits of the Fed. The Fed, in turn, remits 95% of the profits to the Treasury where it is added to the general revenues.” CRS concludes, “In essence, the Fed has made an interest-free loan to the Treasury because almost all of the interest paid by the Treasury to the Fed is subsequently sent back to the Treasury.”

Would you agree with that?

B: Yes, we’ve remitted $125 billion to the Treasury in the last two years. So, it’s important to understand that what we are doing is not fiscal spending; it is in fact purchasing securities which we will then sell back to the market.

K: So, because of Sec. 14 of the Act, maybe the simple way of saying it is, “Others are lending money to the Federal government, you are purchasing those loans, and then the interest payments are being made to you because you are now the holder of … ah … you are the official maker of the loan are then remitted back to the Treasury.” So, maybe in layman’s terms this is one part of the government lending another part of the government money which would not lead to long-term confidence once the American people understood the basics a little bit better?

B: Well, it should be added that we also have a funding cost and as interest rates go up we will have a liability cost as well as an asset cost. So, it may or may not be a return to the Treasury.

1:59:15

B: Monetary policy, even in most normal times, as the CRS says, involves buying and selling Treasury securities. We couldn’t have currency outstanding if we didn’t have securities to back them up.

K: We had a currency for many parts of our history without any Federal debt.

B: When was that?

K: Under the Jackson administration.

B: So this was before the Civil War. This was during the period when individual banks issued currency. We didn’t have a National currency.

K: It’s possible to have currency without a trillion dollar debt?

B: Yes

1:59:55

http://www.c-span.org/Events/Bernanke-Unveils-State-of-the-Economy-Report/10737419880-1/

BASICS – Financial, Fiscal and Monetary


Three words that are frequently used as if they were synonyms need to be better understood: “financial”, “fiscal” and “monetary”. Consider the following definitions taken from Dictionary.com Unabridged:

fi•nan•cial [fi-nan-shuhl, fahy-]
–adjective
1. pertaining to monetary receipts and expenditures; pertaining or relating to money matters; pecuniary: financial operations.
2. of or pertaining to those commonly engaged in dealing with money and credit.
Origin: 1760–70; finance + -ial

fi•nance [fi-nans, fahy-nans]
–noun
1. the management of revenues; the conduct or transaction of money matters generally, esp. those affecting the public, as in the fields of banking and investment.
2. finances, the monetary resources, as of a government, company, organization, or individual; revenue.
Origin: 1350–1400; ME finaunce < AF, MF finance, equiv. to fin(er) to end, settle, pay + -ance -ance

fis•cal [fis-kuhl]
–adjective
1. of or pertaining to the public treasury or revenues: fiscal policies.
2. of or pertaining to financial matters in general.
Origin: 1530–40; < L fiscalis. See fisc, -al

fisc [fisk]
–noun
a royal or state treasury; exchequer.
Origin: 1590–1600; < MF < L fiscus treasury, moneybag, lit., basket, bag

mon•e•tar•y [mon-i-ter-ee, muhn-]
–adjective
1. of or pertaining to the coinage or currency of a country.
2. of or pertaining to money; pecuniary: The necklace has sentimental as opposed to monetary value.
Origin: 1795–1805; < LL monetarius. See money, -ary

mon•ey [muhn-ee]
–noun
1. any circulating medium of exchange, including coins, paper money, and demand deposits.
Origin: 1250–1300; ME moneie < MF < L moneta mint, money

As it happens, the three magic words, “financial”, “fiscal” and “monetary”, are listed as synonyms by such respected sources as Roget’s 21st Century Thesaurus, Third Edition where we find this note clarifying the difference between monetary and fiscal:

monetary means ‘pertaining or relating to money or currency’ and fiscal means ‘pertaining or relating to finance and financial matters, especially of government and taxes’

Well meaning armchair economists and media pundits frequently discuss the economy in terms of financial, fiscal and monetary without any thought of what the words mean to their audience.

Financial issues involve the lending, borrowing, investing and trading of money, typical Wall Street activities. Fiscal issues involve government spending and taxes and bring to mind phrases like “deficit spending”, “public debt” and the United States Treasury. Monetary issues involve the money system itself, money supply, inflation and deflation, expansion and contraction and the Federal Reserve Bank System.

  • Financial
    • Wall Street
    • investors & lenders
    • stocks & bonds
    • capital gains (losses)
    • financing & capitalization
  • Fiscal
    • U S Treasury
    • government
    • T-bills, T-notes, T-bonds
    • taxing and spending
    • the budget & deficit spending
  • Monetary
    • Federal Reserve
    • banking system
    • currency & credit
    • money supply
    • quantitative easing

The activities associated with these three distinctly different adjectives are closely connected, making the need to use the words carefully all the more important. Media pundits do their audience a great disservice by calling everything a financial, fiscal and/or monetary crisis without taking the time to explain what aspects of the crisis are related to financial, fiscal and/or monetary activities.

The failure to make these distinctions and many others is, in my opinion, one of the reasons we fail to recognize the causes of and solutions to the problem.

Does it hurt enough yet? Can we stop giving most of our wealth to just a few people? Can we have our money system back now?

QE2 Again!

In my last article entitled “Has QE2 Already Started?” I observed that the Federal Reserve System (the Fed) began to increase its holdings of U.S. Treasury securities (Treasuries) in mid-August, a move that roughly corresponded with reductions in holdings associated with agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities.

I also observed that the Fed was acquiring and holding long-term treasuries in this move, a practice that began in late-March.

I thought that this move might have been the first sign of QE2 being implemented but further research as led me to this information posted on the Open Market Operations page of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York website :

Permanent OMOs: Treasury

The purchase or sale of Treasury securities on an outright basis adds or drains reserves available in the banking system. Such transactions are arranged on a routine basis to offset other changes in the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet in conjunction with efforts to maintain conditions in the market for reserves consistent with the federal funds target rate set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).

On March 18, 2009, the FOMC announced a longer-dated Treasury purchase program with a different operating goal, to help improve conditions in private credit markets.

On August 10, 2010, the FOMC directed the Open Market Trading Desk at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to keep constant the Federal Reserve’s holdings of securities at their current level by reinvesting principal payments from agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in longer-term Treasury securities.

On November 3, 2010, the FOMC decided to expand the Federal Reserve’s holdings of securities in the SOMA to promote a stronger pace of economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate.

I think it is significant to note that the monetary expansion characterized as “quantitative easing” is here characterized as being “permanent”. In theory, the acquisition agency securities temporarily increased the base money supply. The principle payments from this agency debt would have eroded the base money supply until it returned to its previous level. The action taken on August 10, 2010 made the temporary expansion of base money permanent. The Fed will apparently be replacing its $1.2 trillion in agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as the principle is paid, with $1.2 trillion in long-term Treasuries.

The Fed currently holds $847 billion in Treasuries, and will be acquiring another $1.2 trillion to replace agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities acquired in QE1 and $600 billion to be acquired in QE2 for a total of $2.1 trillion; the Fed held $787 billion in Treasuries before QE1. QE1 and QE2 will have increased base money 267%.

Also, $1.8 trillion that would have purchased Treasuries will have to find something else to buy. This will not put money in the pockets of taxpayers, increase employment and raise wages or increase sales on Main Street! In theory, it will put more money in reserves and make more credit available to borrowers; in reality, there is no demand to borrow and it will drive up other speculative investments such as stocks and commodities.

Just imagine a world where the central bank loved the common people as much as the loves the beautiful people. That $1.8 trillion represents just over $22,100 for each family in the United States.

Oliver Twist

"Please Sir, I want some more."

Has QE2 Already Started?

From September 2009 until August 2010, the Federal Reserve System (the Fed) held between $776.6 billion and $777 billion in traditional U.S. Treasury securities (Treasuries). Since August 2010, Treasury holdings have gone up to $840 billion, an increase of $63 billion in just over two months!

Federal Reserve System, Securities Held Outright

Click To Enlarge

The majority of the “assets” being held by the Federal Reserve System which are the basis for the newly created money are NOT Treasuries, they are toxic loans made by Sallie Mae, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac; these are student loans and mortgages listed as “agency securities” and “mortgage-backed securities”.

In the last three months, the Fed holding of mortgage-backed securities has dropped $73.4 billion, from $1.124 trillion to $1.051 trillion. The reduction of $73.6 billion in mortgage-backed securities more than offsets the increase of $63 billion in Treasuries. The net effect is that base money contracted almost $10 billion!

Money supply measured in M1 + M2 has been flat since June 2010. What happened to inflation? The wizards at the Fed have been pushing every button, pulling every lever and flipping every switch but they can’t beat the deflationary spiral.

What happens when price deflation triggered by a shrinking money supply meets cost inflation pushed by compound interest on debt? That’s right; it’s called a monetary crisis!

Is it time for real monetary reform yet? Can we have sound money now?

Estimated Ownership of U.S. Treasury Securities (March 2010)

This pie chart is helpful in understanding who owns the government debt.

Estimated Ownership of U.S. Treasury Securities (March 2010)

(click to enlarge)

Notice that Intergovernmental Holdings are NOT part of the “total privately held” debt and has no influence on money supply, this is money that the government owes itself and amounts to nothing more than an accounting trick.

Also, the only money “created” for the purpose of lending it to the government is the portion held by the Federal Reserve. The remainder of the privately held debt was created by commercial bank lending for other purposes.