MODELLING GOLD PRICES BASED UPON GROWTH IN SDR ALLOCATED RESERVES
So here is how I approached the math.
If we add together the total IMF gold reserves (using $35/ounze) and SDR allocated reserves (using 1 SDR = 1 US dollar), for any particular year, we get a total US dollar value on the IMF reserves. Note that I do not include SDR reserves paid by nations, as per IMF SDR quota rules. Just the ones created out of thin air — allocated SDRs.
I use this as my baseline for the model which many analysts might not agree with using, but go along with me on this because in the beginning 1 SDR was equal to 1 US dollar which was equal to 1/35 ounce of gold. My guess is that like good accountants the IMF probably keeps at least one set of books using original book values !
If we look at the growth in those IMF reserves (both gold and SDR) priced in US dollars from the original reserves, for any particular year, we get a growth multiple for those reserves.
If we take that growth multiple for any year and multiply by the original $35/ounze gold we get what I term the Book Price for Gold held by the IMF.
If we adjust that Book Price by the floating SDR basket of currencies (the US Dollar equivalency), for that year, we get the Float Price for Gold held by the IMF.
If we select some arbitrary factor such as 2.5 times the Book Price as the Mania Price for Gold we can then plot all of these three against the Actual Price of Gold.
Here is the chart previously posted.
Gold has a new floor of $2000/ounce but could easily drift into the $3000/ounce area based upon the SDR basket of currencies (US dollar equivalency).
With an orderly 3 year accent, as happened between 1972-1975, we should be there by 2012. Maybe 2011 if things get alittle rushed.
However beware ! More to come on the issue of IMF reserve quotas potentially doubling in 2011 and the risk that the IMF may eventually allow countries to swap US dollar global reserves for SDRs or something like that…which might be very US dollar friendly?