Category Archives: resource scarcity

Perfect Storm #1 – The Lethal Confluence of 4 Critical Factors

  By Richard from Canada | April 4, 2013 - 15:23 | , ,
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The economy as we know it is facing a lethal confluence of four critical factors – the fall-out from the biggest debt bubble in history; a disastrous experiment with globalisation; the massaging of data to the point where economic trends are obscured; and, most important of all, the approach of an energy-returns cliff-edge.

The 2008 crash resulted from the bursting of the biggest bubble in financial history, a ‘credit super-cycle’ that spanned three decades. Why did this happen?

The Western developed nations are particularly exposed to the adverse trends explored in this report, because globalisation has created a lethal divergence between burgeoning consumption and eroding production, with out-of-control debt used to bridge this widening chasm.

The reliable information which policymakers and the public need if effective solutions are to be found is not available. Economic data (including inflation, growth, GDP and unemployment) has been subjected to incremental distortion, whilst information about government spending, deficits and debt is extremely misleading.

The economy is a surplus energy equation, not a monetary one, and growth in output (and in the global population) since the Industrial Revolution has resulted from the harnessing of ever-greater quantities of energy. But the critical relationship between energy production and the energy cost of extraction is now deteriorating so rapidly that the economy as we have known it for more than two centuries is beginning to unravel.

This was an excellent paper.

http://www.tullettprebon.com/Documents/strategyinsights/TPSI_009_Perfect_Storm_009.pdf

from

http://www.tullettprebon.com/strategyinsights/index.aspx

Is he alittle over the top in his thoughts ?!

 

Energy policy anyone~?

  By Mystic | October 7, 2012 - 06:11 | , ,
2 Comments

Well, does your country have an energy plan~?

Whether the world is going to run short of energy (thereby making it more expensive) ……

…. Or, the world will increasingly tax energy, so as to conserve it …….

…. Energy is going to get on the television more~!

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How many, is too many…??

  By snedmeister1 | June 15, 2012 - 06:47 | , , ,
2 Comments

 

 

I remember this BBC documentary being broadcast recently.

I didn’t watch it then, but have seen it before. It holds nothing new, but is interesting nevertheless….

Of course, it does have David Attenborough as the presenter, but he somewhat of an institution here…!!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ZdwHv6zyWM

 

David lists three things in here, which he suggest need to be accepted and managed if we are to overcome these issues.

1. Change technology.

2. Voluntarily reduce population growth.

3. Voluntarily reduce consumption of fossil fuels.

I will leave the opinion to yourselves, on whether we are likely to achieve all three…

Canada/US Relations #1 – An Insurance Policy with Canada

  By Richard from Canada | June 10, 2012 - 09:51 | ,
5 Comments

 

Canada has long been owned, maybe controlled or at least influenced by America.  At least that is one view of Canadian history!?  This is in response to Paul’s observation that the US should have taken Canada long ago like during The War of 1812.  I want to remind Paul that the US tried very hard to voluntarily get Canada to join.  In fact The US Articles of Confederation Article 11 written in 1777 and ratified in 1781 states that ” if Canada chooses to declare its independence and agrees to the terms of the Articles of Confederation, it can join the union and become a fully sovereign state like the other thirteen states. This offer does not include any other colony but Canada, unless nine states agree to extend this offer to another colony.  ”

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Articles_of_Confederation

I guess we have a long history of staying independent.    However I degress.

So after Canada becomes a nation in 1867 we generally have friendly relations with the UK and US.  We are a great place to do business or raw material extraction !!   However things started going alittle off into the wrong direction with the Province of Quebec.

“Following the Second World War, Québec experienced a new wave of industrialization and an improved standard of living coupled with full employment. This gave unions hope for greater recognition and increased membership. The union movement of the 1950s wanted to play a larger role in Québec society.  Employers, on the other hand, were opposed to the growth of trade unionism and benefited from strong support from the Union Nationale government of Maurice Duplessis (1890-1959). To attract foreign companies to Québec, Duplessis wanted to ensure potential investors that they could count on a favourable, stable social environment, in addition to inexpensive natural resources and labour. This state of affairs would eventually lead to the trade union upheaval of the second half of the 20th century.”

http://www.mccord-museum.qc.ca/scripts/explore.php?Lang=1&elementid=106__true&tableid=11&tablename=theme&contentlong

This contributed in the 1960s to the ongoing Quiet Revolution and the Catholic Church slowly being removed from its traditional role in Quebec society.  Replaced by increased union political influence and the evolution to a more socialist state.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quiet_Revolution

Then in 1967 we get Charles de Gaulle supporting Quebec Independance and getting invited to leave Canada.  Go to 4:15 – 5:10 minute mark.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C0LQBcygNew

Then the Quebec Independance movement escalated to kidnapping, murder and the  War Measures Act of 1970.  What was happening in Canada ?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_Crisis

So “in 1974, a permanent garrison was assigned and Camp Drum was renamed Fort Drum. ” in northern New York State just kilometers from the Canadian border.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fort_Drum

Then “in the 1976 election, the Quebec Independance (Parti Quebecois, PQ) party won its first  majority in the Quebec National Assembly.”  This was followed by the 1980  Quebec Referendum for independance which failed to get a majority.  However “the PQ was returned to power in the 1981 election with a stronger majority than in 1976… However, they did not hold a referendum in their second term, and put sovereignty on hold, concentrating on their stated goal of “good government”.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quebec_sovereignty_movement#Precursor_ideas_and_events

“On September 11, 1984, the announcement was made that Fort Drum would be the new home of the 10th Light Infantry Division. The first division troops arrived at Fort Drum on December 3, 1984 and the unit was officially activated on February 13, 1985. The name was changed to the 10th Mountain Division (Light Infantry) at that time. ”

Remember that a US Army Division is more army and air force than the entire Canadian Forces !  A full army division on the border with Central Canada;  moved there  (for many reasons) including the political risks in Quebec which is not on the unclassified list!  An insurance policy so to say !?

Then finally in 2008 “Canada and the U.S. … signed an agreement that paves the way for the militaries from either nation to send troops across each other’s borders during an emergency…Neither the Canadian government nor the Canadian Forces announced the new agreement, which was signed Feb. 14, 2008 in Texas.”

http://www.canada.com/ottawacitizen/news/story.html?id=47dc5095-4da9-4faa-8464-fe01289b4b7a

The Insurance Policy can now be enforced legally !

This of course is no conspiracy but simply the long term evolution of a bunch of unrelated stuff ultimately being very related.

 

 

 

Fixing It #3 – Efforts Made To Sustain Society Implies It’s Future Collapse ?!

  By Richard from Canada | June 6, 2012 - 17:39 | ,
3 Comments

 

This is a great lecture to listen to for all those who think living in a sustainable society is possible, a society in equilibrium with nature (energy, food consumption, etc).  Joseph Tainter brings up a number of important points, which I probably have distorted somewhat.

What is most noteworthy is the observation that sustainable to most people implies maintaining their current standard of living, not a standard of living lower than currently maintained.  Also by the time efforts are made to sustain it takes alot of increased effort and energy to sustain.  Effectively this means your society has peaked out.  I take his comments as implying that there can be no steady state !?  We always peak out, try to sustain and then collapse just to repeat the cycle ?

Finally there is also this concept that society is complex and it will collapse because of the built up dependancies that can no longer be sustained  !?

It is worth listening to all 7 parts.  Hopefully I have not biased your viewing too much.  He delivers a great talk.  Not sure if someone had already posted it here ?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ddmQhIiVM48

 

Turning the screw…

  By The German Perspective | March 14, 2012 - 14:07 | , , ,
9 Comments

No question, Germany is one of the most productive countries in the world. We strive for productivity and efficiency, but are we effective?

We have reformed the school system, shortening school times in order for students to study fast and thus work earlier. We have reformed the health system, so that at average a doctor has eight minutes for each patient – whether you have a cold or cancer. We have reformed the retirement system, so that people work longer and can only reach full pension payment at the age of 67. We have reformed the labor market, resulting into about ten million people working at low level wage in temporary work – turning it into permanent work for them.

We are productive beyond all means.

Productivity and efficiency today is Germany’s altar. We pray for, cherish and worship effective measures leading to more output, more revenue, more exports, more employment, more profit, more taxes. This leads to more psychological illnesses, more pollution, more displacement, more class-struggle, more debt, more rescue efforts, more hatred and less living.

We are productive until blood comes.

I have said it before: Germans see life as a machine. The more you oil it, the faster it runs. The more you tune it, the more “perfect” it is. The larger it is, the more comes out of it. Sustainability? None! Like in mechanics a screw can only be tightened once. You keep turning it once it is tight, it will suddenly soften and finally loosen. That’s when you have overdone it. Germany is a small country and many people think we are a “role model”. If just Greece, the Philippines or Madagascar would be more like us… then the world would of course be a better place.

BULLSHIT!  

The more this world strives to be like Germany, the faster all this will come to an end. We can not continue to be ever more productive. We ruin our economies; ruin our environment and finally our lives with it.

Once that screw is overturned we will all be screwed.