Author Archives: noncents

Ahmadinejad declares revolt removes Satanic Designs.

  By noncents | February 11, 2011 - 14:42 |
2 Comments

Ahmadinejad proclaims the protests break Egypt free of American interference, and brings a new Middle East which is emerging to doom Israel. This speech, coincidentally or possibly by some synchronistical force just happens to be the anniversary of the 1979 Islamic Revolution which deposed the Western-allied monarchy of Iran and brought hard-line clerics to power.

“Despite the (West’s) complicated and satanic designs … a new Middle East is emerging without the Zionist regime and U.S. interference, where the arrogant powers will have no place”.

Ahmadinejad, said “It’s your right to be free. It’s your right to exercise your will and sovereignty … and choose the type of government and the rulers”.

Really?

Food for Thought

  By noncents | February 10, 2011 - 19:47 | ,
1 Comment

States fail when rulers lose control of food security. Basic subsistence level and the inability to provide food is one major reason for populace revolt. Obtaining enough food is becoming more difficult.

States are also failing from demographic fatigue, unable to cope with shrinkage in cropland and freshwater supply per person or to build schools fast enough for the swelling ranks of children.

The demographic trap allows just enough economic and social development to reduce mortality, but not enough to lower fertility. As a result, large families bring poverty and poverty brings large families.

Then with demographic challenges, all of the natural assets, forests, grasslands, soils, and aquifers are being depleted to sustain the growing populations.

One country at the top of my list is Sudan who is losing topsoil to wind erosion. Fortunately the natural oil resource may bring some development of farming before the topsoil is depleted. That is if the Sudan authorities work together and see the crisis coming.

Some countries are water-stressed such as China. China is cloud seeding in the absence of rainfall and are over-pumping what aquifers are available in farming regions. At some point in the curve, as rapid population growth, deteriorating environmental support systems, and poverty go head to head with each other, the resulting instability makes it difficult to attract investment from abroad. We see this condition now in Haiti.

In Haiti, the millions contributed to the country in public assistance programs from donor countries are being phased out as the health concerns threaten the lives of aid workers. The wealth of nations can not fix demographics. The conditions of state failure may be a long time in the making, but the collapse itself can come quickly.

Sudan a key to China and Russia globalization

  By noncents | February 4, 2011 - 00:53 |
4 Comments

China plays both sides for oil but when it comes to Human Rights, not so much.   Will China and Russia find that Human Rights peace-keeping will be the key issue, to unlock their globalization plans?

TheNewAmerican

  • Sudan wealth of oil is located in Southern Sudan
  • China has invested over 20 bln in Sudan refining and infrastructure.
  • China imports from Sudan 6% of China demand and 71% of Sudan exports and 60% of Sudan Oil.
  • Southern Sudan post- independence, plans for a new pipeline from South Sudan to Kenya that would shift 85% of oil revenue away from the North.
  • Some estimate that as many as 35,000 Chinese nationals work on oil rigs, especially in the petroleum-rich Southern Sudan.
  • Southern Sudan mostly Christian.
  • Northern Sudan mostly Muslem.
  • South Sudan’s vote for independence creates a delicate situation for China and forces it to take on a larger political role.
  • Because of its large investment in the northern refinery and ties with both the north and south, China needs the Sudanese split to be problem-free.
  • The Central Bank of Sudan has started circulation of the new Sudanese pound that is to replace the current Sudanese dinar of the north.
  • Sudan’s north will continue to use the Sudanese pound after the oil-producing south secedes.
  • Southern Sudanese officials have said they plan to issue a new currency.

Currency could wreak havoc overnight.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LGmE9weRNSo[/youtube]

Americas Grand Parenting Plan

  By noncents | January 22, 2011 - 21:27 |
1 Comment

Americas’ preeminent role as a sole super power is coming to an end.  Her status as a sole parent to provide discipline for less powerful nations at very least, is going to be in question moving ahead.  Consider then, if this statement is true and history has shown no super-power remains prominent, then what is her future role?

China is having success emerging to become at least another pole of power, but still exhibits many immature tendencies.  America is also having trouble dealing with her quick success, and for the first time, her ability to “talk back”.  She now is mature enough to realize the strength of her power.  This freedom has now manifested to tell America NO.

Stay out of my affairs with Tibet and enough about human rights.  I am tired of it, just be nice and try to get along.  And while I am here, give me the keys to the car and fill it with petrol for me.  I am going out tonight and will be in late.  Don’t wait up.  And with that she slams the door.

This is the first time in history, at least Americas’ short history, the system we have created for ourselves, that being democracy, allow other powers to rise ahead of us.  Like a growing adolescent, China now can think for herself and seems to be on a path to individual success.  She does not need a dote-ling parent always in her face on how to act.
Korea, Japan, India, China are all growing but not fully developed with no real desire for confrontation with America. All of Europe, Germany, France, Great Britain and Russia are powerful, but no reason for power struggle either.

The first half of the 20th century, that entire dysfunctional octet including America killed over 100 Million people in the World Wars.  In the end, nations sought to finance and rebuild.  America took on a role of dominance.  Like it or not, she established her leadership role.

America has helped create an environment for nations to grow and even surpass her. Now that her grand plan of democracy for the world she nurtured takes shape, she seems uncomfortable not being the sole power in this new system of world order.

America does not seem to know how to ask for help, when now, she is struggling with her internal parts and members are aching.  Doctor says there is no cure for her pains, they will just become worse as she ages.  This is little comfort to the old gal who could really be a doer in her day.

She is trying to remain the parent and her children are all grown up.  Some are showing signs of leaving her behind.  They have less dependence on her now and resent her intrusion.  Retirement living is an adjustment for America, and the kids just have less time for her these days.

Who is visiting the White House?

  By noncents | January 17, 2011 - 03:54 |
2 Comments

It is not “Who” is visiting the White House, but “HU”. So what will be the message to Mr Hu? Obama is likely to say to Hu, “Like Two Feet, We Need Each Other To Move Forward”. That will be the message.

The White House danced with China last time the debt ceiling was raised. Oh, and make no mistake, the debt ceiling will be raised again. The US government is not revenue constrained. Until China does not want any more of our trade resource, there are no constraints.

China is gaining in their standard of living. Our relationship will continue to evolve and there will be bumps in their road.  In this progression, realize they don’t have an equal monetary system established. Until they do, we are just using them to facilitate our debt while maintaining a more dominant currency standing.

Now this is the tricky bit, keeping a dominant currency standing while the rest of the world increasingly lashes out at being constrained by their central banks inability to print. I am sure HU will have some words on his Yuan appreciation.  Oh, and we do appreciate it.  As a consolation prize, Hu will be happy to know that the Yuan is now freely exchanged as the primary currency in New York’s China Town.  That is a start!

Now let’s all forget about that debt ceiling thing and party like its 1999, when Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers was in charge and Timmy Geitner was still matriculating the Treasury Matrix.

Just for fun, click here to read what Larry Summers told the BBC in 1999.

Rulers of the World.

  By noncents | January 14, 2011 - 23:12 |
9 Comments

They seemingly can’t be stopped.  Out of Bonds and into Equities.  Since November, the municipal market in the United States has been very volatile, as sentiment for the Bonds continues to be negative.

Contributing factors:

  • The almost daily headlines of States and Cities having difficulty budgeting, pension obligations and solvency.
  • Bond Managers see an increasing flight of participants to equities, requiring increased fund adjustment.
  • QE2 has disrupted the liquidity of normal bond sessions.
  • QE2 has been an Equity catalyst.  Igniting fear of inflation, deflation, bi-flation, and confusion.
  • The Buy America Bond program conveniently expired on 12/31.

A most notable market reaction on Friday was the 47% reduction in size of New Jersey issue originally structured as a $1.9bn offering downsized to $967mm after the Governor mentioned that health care costs will “bankrupt” the state.

Despite weakness in Govt debt auctions, investors of equities don’t appear shaken.  Data disappointment relative to market consensus seems not to be important.  Retail Sales and Consumer Sentiment both were down significantly and missed expectations.  The futures pits did not even blink as they traded up the market, ahead of the long weekend.  In the US we have a market holiday for Martin Luther King on Monday.

The broader global marketplace was quiet and uneventful, apart from BP announcing a new joint effort with Russia.  It is interesting to note in London BP shares fell ahead of the share swap announcement with Russia.  BP’s American Depositary Receipts (ADR) stock increased on the New York Stock Exchange.  This is a prime example of how funds can hedge positions on a global scale.  We should not then be surprised the price is now 25% higher than when the oil spill occurred.

Domestic banking sector was bolstered from JP Morgan, yes, yet again, with a solid earnings report.  Any surprise there?  If you are a Mystic follower, it should not be.  On one side we have the real world population hurting from food price hikes, job redundancy, environmental disasters such as in the Gulf, govt austerity, etc., and on the other we have Central Bank Governments manipulating monies flow into the areas of their choice.  Much of the monies flow by subtle influence of markets and some by direct manipulation of World Bank members currency pairs.

The political spectrum is full of noise to divert our attention from our humble retirement accounts, or what is left in our savings after inflation takes its hidden tax.   Couple the political noise we hear with the smooth algo-trade-patterns of bank traders in the mercantile open call pit and you are witness to a sneaky market correction.  This mind you, is in a dysfunctional market.   All of this is designed to control and distribute the wealth around the World as the Central Banks require to maintain their control.

It is so refined, not even the best of market participants appear to see what is happening.  Is there a monolithic conspiracy?  Maybe not, but without a doubt, greed rules the monies flow from down stream traders, up the banking chain.  The party of profit continues.

Over The Peek participants should continue to be aware of the manipulation and control.  The party at the Bernank residence will end in June if the Dollar has adjusted satisfactorily.  The party however, will continue at the Paulsen ‘N’ Geitner pub.  On into the night, under a cloak of darkness, 20 regular attendees of the pub will continue to discuss World monetary affairs.

Included is a 15 minute cartoon to help open any weary eyes not yet convinced.  [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kx7HDTDDopA[/youtube]