Take a deep breath….

Here is a rough transcription of the presentation for people who are hard of hearing. Apologies for the lack of grammar, I am working to improve the automated transcriptions -
good choose day morning let’s start in the United States of America Winnifred chart now what this indicates larger tell you what’s on the chart first all got in the green line is a flattened down version of the CPI the inflation index and the blue line is the 10 year Treasury in relation to that flattened out CPI okay so it’s how much more you will get on the 10 year Treasury over inflation or under inflation In the 70s you could see everything went all haywire and it went below that green line at the things were so completely out of control it was hard to say that they were choosing something the market were choosing only the people buying treasuries with choosing something it was just inflation was out of control BBC since the 80s that numbers come down and down and less money you get per annum for owning a Treasury over the rate of CPI inflation and now it is negative and the reason I’m showing this chart is this is happening slowly everyone knows that that lines come down slowly CPI isn’t out of control its flat enough able nowhere it going the market or people representing money or investing money are happy now to invest in a ten-year Treasury and accept that they will lose a certain amount of that money each year Nuts are very important thinkers this hasn’t come on quickly this is a slow carefully thought out strategy that the market it will accept a loss per year for investing safely wrapped right off into the world in the EU economy Irish recovery grinds to a halt Ireland’s fragile economic recovery has ground to a halt with new figures showing the economy did not grow in the second quarter raising fresh questions over Dublin’s ability to execute international bailout is nothing particularly blow up spectacular here is just the first in the series winner show you that the good things that have happened since the end of the great recession are kind of all featuring out islands done really jolly well but it could not obviously flourish in a non-flourishing environment this is the latest market flash France PMI sharpest decline in French private sector the key points flash France composite output index falls from 48 in August to 44 service activity falls from 49 to 46 manufacturing from Fort to 42 from 46 Francies Manufacturing output 39.8 from 45 these are absolutely shocking figures I France is in its own amount of trouble and so for rescuing Italy Spain etc is who’s going to do it Germany of course this is the latest iPhone business climate that was out yesterday through things tracked on this chart business expectations assessment of business situation and I’ve iPhone business now I industry and trade the this is the most important thing that I can I I see that the Germans follow as their projector of how things will be in its just a very clear chart you can see the great depression fall down there the trunk pointing downwards the was nipped in the attempt at a double dip but am they came out of it and now it’s gone down further than the last attempt at a double dip everybody out there is attempting this short sort of shape of chart I love got that doubled tried to double dipping or it just goes up smoothly after the great recession and now it coming down right Argentina yapped Argentina banks get squeezed by state lending campaign now going to a slightly different angle here because all in In the end Argentina banks are reluctantly complying with state orders to make cheaper long-term loans to small businesses but they worry about shrinking profits and more aggressive government meddling down the road to think things to note here Argentina and Iran still are the worst state of the world and this is another way of doing it to the government can come in and force banks to lend but naturally they don’t want to lend because their analysts say it’s not worth lending big government can come in and do things but it doesn’t make things any less dangerous unless it’s done brilliantly and governments don’t do things brilliantly this is from the UK newspaper the Guardian this one is armpit self-explanatory by the end of the second paragraph so let’s go into it now I have no doubt that the Chief Executive of Tesco did not get to where he is today without Bush ruled grassed grasp of business unfortunately like many business executives he apparently thinks that he has the answer to the British economy’s problems too so you can imagine the Chico executive of Tesco has spoken large about how the government and should get out of this problem he tells us that families across Britain are trying to live within their means the coalition government must do the same the most important question of our time is how government can improve people’s lives without simply borrowing more money the standard sort of stuff that we hear all around the world as the austerity call the Guardian columnist well the answer is that it can’t there is no alternative for a government in this position but to borrow its way out of recession until it restores the economy to a decent rate of growth at which point it can then begin to reduce the deficit and begin to live within its means this is also correct in my humble opinion but again government will have to do an awful lot of the right things in the right order at the right times to make all this happen which they’re not going to be able to do what I’m trying to say is here government is the only way out but the government is not going to do it right if even if they do it at all so we are in deep shift right at finish herewith another angle you can see the desperation out there to get out of these problems give Greece more time says the French prime minister Francis said that Greece should be given more time to meet the terms of its international bailout arm bar go to the bottom paragraph speaking in an interview with the French news website we can already offer the police more time on the condition is at least is sincere and commitment to perform especially tax perform in other words-year-olds okay cool and given more time and that is another answer the debts are there the debts are out there people need to be the debt holders need to be given more money so they can pay their debts they need to be given in or for more time so they can maybe pay the debts in the future or they will default on their debts making you back off lots of problems as they default the answers are there basically what will happen of course the government will encourage the central banks to print as much money as possible so they get away as easily as possible it’s always happen that way and it will happen that way again that it is this tension think between the people say austerity and the people that say our old prints are more money it’ll be all right and that what we see all over the world but neither the austerity or the printing money really takes care of the fact that there is too much get out there in the world and to buy

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  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Hans-Verbeek/100001373372896 Hans Verbeek

    Printing more money doesn’t put any easy-to-extract oil or coal into the European soil.

    Giving up a lot of our 21st century lifestyle is also necessary.

    • http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/ Mystic

       The energy problem, is …… a problem (especially for those that have none under home soil).
      I don’t think the cheapness of oil has been accepted by many as one of the main drivers of modern civilisation.
      (They seem to think it was all down to clever people doing clever things~!?)

      • http://www.facebook.com/people/Hans-Verbeek/100001373372896 Hans Verbeek

        What a wonderful way to describe of our current predicament.

        Aren’t we the lucky ones, that have so much wealth to lose

  • Jasp

    This summer I was away from MSM for several weeks – and, lo, upon returning to world news, nothing had changed. A bit depressing really. There had been the opportunity to speak to people on different continents and several themes came through that I think might be of interest to readers of this blog. This is by no means scientific, but just personal impressions:
    - a strong sense of unease, that the situation cannot continue indefinitely
    - for many of the current 30 – 50 year olds, they will not be “better off” than their parents due to there being fewer opportunities – a sense of the general squeeze
    - worry that the younger generation (all who are now coming out of university and younger) are being conned with huge unrepayable loans. Where America leads, the rest follow. Oh, and please don’t get me on the subject of Internships – that hypocritical, devious and despicable form of exploitation. Medieval apprentices received more in return for their time and work. The only to people to receive any benefit are the rich and connceted….

    This brings me back to the funny money topic. Most of us in the real world of paying bills for goods and services, working in the goods and services sectors understand money as being a) a means of exchange, b) a store of wealth and c) a means of keeping score. Recently more people are beginning to understand that our credit economy creates money out of thin air. This still leaves the disconnect with the derivatives financial element. I found global GDP as $70 trillion and searching global derivatives tha number $1200 trillion. The exact numbers don’t matter, but the relative size. I still think the “real” economy, what we all need in terms of food, trade etc can be run without the derivatives, but the fear of realising these losses (who will take the cut, guys? Guess what? You and me!) are at the root of the desperate measures to keep things going. I wonder whether our current accounting system is fine for “real” world, but has systemic failures in built when dealing with the present merry-go-round.

    I also suspect, but have no proof, that cheap energy has previously been ignored and its demise is now starting to work through and the world economy is not set up to deal with this. Basically we eat oil.

    To pour some oil on to the flames of worker issue ;-), here are a couple of links I idly kept from a while ago:

    http://www.neweconomics.org/sites/neweconomics.org/files/A_Bit_Rich.pdf

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/nov/07/one-per-cent-wealth-destroyers?newsfeed=true

    This has turned out a bit long, and thanks to Nick for persevering. We are reading. I do think that fatigue is setting in, trying to understand what is going on and then finding none, or very few answers. Please do not be discouraged if I don’t often post – sometimes there is nothing sensible to add, or the blog is read at a later date and it’s a bit late to comment. Thanks again for taking the time.

    • http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/ Mystic

       Thanks Jasp, I liked all that~!
      (NEF are OK and learning fast)

      It is interesting to come back and still see the world `not much changed`.
      (I do it every day)

      Hope you gained lots from your `time out`.
      Please post whatever you think is valuable.

      In a way,
      it is surprising that such a big world, changes as quickly as it does.
      That may be the `complexity power system` that has been set up on the back of barrels of oil~!?

  • Haploid

    so much bad news ahh …. love the site revamp btw Mystic, very cool indeed.

    • http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/ Mystic

      Yes, I don’t have to `dig` to get the bad news, it is lying around all over the place.

      Nothing totally tragic though ……… So no great big explosions expected.

      Thanks.  I like the way the site is now looking (and it gives me room to fill it out some more)
      All help will be appreciated~!

  • Anm

    printy printy printy inflation inflation inflation !

    • http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/ Mystic

       Printy, printy, printy, yes; but inflation~? …… No, not for a good long while yet~!