Here is a rough transcription of the presentation for people who are hard of hearing. Apologies for the lack of grammar, I am working to improve the automated transcriptions -
a loo wall Waldron scare a right from global financial got an interactive chart that I’m going to move through you can pause any time you like so at number one in the opening chart I’ve gotten government interacted with and pushed the highest government debt to the top so we’ve got Japan at the top 2 to 6 then Greece Italy France and Ireland that is for government debt one be I’ve interacted with non-financial businesses and we got Ireland Spain Portugal France and the United Kingdom non-financial businesses that is so that’s mainly property developing and you can see the results of that is in Ireland Spain Portugal France and the United Kingdom next we move onto households and again this is part of harmed property buying in this case borrowing to buy the property Ireland United Kingdom Portugal Canada United States and Spain moving on to financial institutions Highland at the head again United Kingdom Japan France South Korea those financial institutions that are in the most debt which gives us the total one he is the my chart number reference totals gives Ireland at the top gold medal to Ireland to Japan Silver and the United Kingdom bronze with Spain Portugal and France coming in behind the leaders there so you can go back and pause or do whatever you like and will move onto my number two which is DSR is in crisis dates now DSR is I think in this instance are debt servicing rates often called debt servicing costs in these charts the background | Ray lines are recessions as normal but they’re putting red vertical lines as well which are banking crises so in Australia that had recessions but no banking crises or even a crisis and we can see the debt servicing costs for Australian households are I believe it’ll be 20 just over 20% of household budget $.20 per household budget goes to servicing debt per month per year whatever and that is consistently become all it has consistently been possible for Australians because what causes a banking crisis is when the bank basically pushes the people too far and they cannot support the debt servicing costs animal this happened in Finland consumed top middleware in 1991 when.debt servicing costs went to 30% too much and it crashed right down and where it is now 1516 is perfectly fine for Finland Italy top right hand a similar crisis in 1993 at a number of only 16 or 17 different countries households can support at different times different amounts of debt servicing costs but generally it’s always if you push them up too high they will crashed down and they crashed down that in 1993 in Italy at 17 and have crashed down again at about 19 or 20 Italians basically it looks like cannot service high debts career bottom right bottom left sorry is different being an emergency emerging market everything is growth growth growth so you can support high debt servicing costs because you know that the future will be so bright and your your just be able to pay your old debts so they got up to 40% before they crashed down and now there are 30 but it’s the end of the growth model in career now that South Korea obviously and it’s icing dubious that career will be able to hold their debt servicing costs at 30 now it’s the end of their super growth model mode United Kingdom crashed twice 91 when debt servicing costs were only 21 and the crashed again 29 and the reason United Kingdom is just about ticking over at the moment is cause those debt servicing costs are being brought down quite a lot but as in America which is very similar looking to the United Kingdom have come down to 22-ish as well at the moment that enough to keep things ticking over at is also enough to keep the entire economy damped down neither economy has any chance of really flying away with debt servicing costs that high on huge debt right out there in the world so it’s Australia fixed home rates fall below floating mortgages am ordered the second paragraph floating rate loans account for 90% floating rate in 90% of Australian mortgages so the reserve bank’s reduction of its benchmark by 1.25% to 3.5% between November and June provided homeowners with almost immediate benefits the cuts did little to stimulate home sales because of concerns that slowing economic growth would drag down property prices loan approvals unexpectedly fell in July by the most in five months obviously the eastern economy is-ish and is very critical for the Australian housing boom and just about keeping it together now but a crack over there in the East and that boom will bust more than it is at the moment over in New Zealand will get an idea from the headline what’s going on there Bernard Hickey wonders why New Zealand is not printing money and thinks we are being severely disadvantaged by not following the crowd your view the article goes on to say whether the rest of central banks of the world just about printing money and debauchery debasing their currencies New Zealand is not their currencies becoming strong and they rely an awful lot on exports and their exports are being hit basically the question is should New Zealand just follow along just so they can get their currency to follow the race in the race to the bottom because they’re getting left behind arm up at the top with a strong currency which is harming the current country right up in China China’s cylindrical economy government subsidies to green energy and high-speed rail have led to mounting losses and costly bailouts this is not a road the US should travel Patrick Chubb Annette August 3 the owner of the changing morning kneeing wrong meanings solar company lept from the sixth floor of his office building individual horse are China leave a killed himself after his company was unable to repay a $3 million bank loan it had guaranteed for another Chinese solar company that defaulted one local financial newspaper called Lee’s suicide@are imminent collapse facing Chinese photovoltaic industry due to overcapacity and mounting debts present barrack bulbar, has held up China’s investments in Gene Green energy and high-speed rail as examples of the kind of state led industrial policy that America should be emulating the real lesson is precisely the opposite state subsidies have spawned dozens of Chinese cylindrical is that now on the verge of collapse don’t know what cylindrical was you can match from also splashed analyst we’ve got capital flows and trade surplus from in China in blue are the capital flows that Wigan to look at because trade surpluses export import differences is one big red sticky down there I forget why that was a strange one for what would basically got for most of this chart is blue sticky upness towards the left and right over towards the right to all capital flow capital is followed working into China but have a look for the last year or so and there’s an awful lot of blue sticky down us out capital flow we can think is flow of capital from bright bunnies that are investing their money in the place that they think that they can make more money and for the last year or so to a greater degree they do not think that there is China That quite important because these are this is the bright money that is now not going to China and are over the way their South Korea unveils $5.2 billion stimulus it is a certain size economy $5.2 billion is quite a big stimulus and basically South Korean career would be one-piece stimulating itself if it thought everything was superduper things are not superduper out East and is going be ramifications are all wonderfully protons have one I’ll tell you what the this is digital trends in China noodles slicing robots are taking over local restaurants are do put the think this is the YouTube video put it down underneath so you can just watch that but that the idea is if it’s just one thing that people are being taken over by robot wherever possible because that’s what makes more money for capital remakes more A capital people are increasingly expensive and always and ever have been a bloody nose’s white
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