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hello indeed Friday people lets I’m going to use the OECD as a summing up of what I been talking about over the last couple weeks and what they call them near term global economic outlook and this is their interim assessment okay second slide is their annualised quarter on quarter GDP growth in percent United States the top arm cut off on the right hand side are projections for quarter three of this year and quarter for United States coming in to blah and 2.4 blah plus Japan -2.3 and zero Germany -.5 and -.8 France -.4 and .2 Italy -2.9 and -1.4 United Kingdom -0.7 and .2 in Canada 1.3 and 1.9 out my point on this is when that’s an awful of the world that isn’t doing very well except the United States is meant to go from blah to blah plus I don’t don’t quite see that I don’t see where the United States it’s going to get it boost from to go from blah to in the third quarter up to blah plus in the fourth quarter but otherwise you see the figures are so the just hanging around zero and this is becoming very popular right risks to the Outlook these look sensibly written pudding bullet points and I’m sure they could go on for pages about it and I could as well intensification of the euro area instability further dampening global confident I would say that the druggie action of yesterday maybe we’ll put a damper on a quiet nap on Europe are blowing up before the end of this year but it doesn’t mean that the euro is going to do well as in the euro area it’s not then we employ any people it just means that those it’s less explosive in total excessive fiscal contraction especially in the United States January 1 and January 2 in the United States thinks things are programmed in to happen unless Congress does something and the only thing that Congress realistically can do is step up and kick the can down the road level is just did say will delay all those January 1 January 2 things but when they do that can kicking to delay it it will be another knock to their credibility because it will be so obvious that that’s what are doing is just kicking the can down the road again into disappointment in labour market outcomes knocking consumer confidence that seems very decent that whatever happens from here on in to the end of the year in Europe in the United States at employment prospects are not really going to change anything at all arm even for the American presidential election there the unemployment rate is not likely to go completely up or completely down and what it is now is what people will get to vote on because it’s not nothing much is going to change further increases to already high oil prices at a strange one I don’t know how to take that as in we seen that the United States of America is put in is blah in everybody else’s just below blah blah minus but it looks like even blah minus with all the people in the world is enough to keep oil prices high and any even sniff of the world recovering and oil prices will further increase has noted their next clip world growth has slowed markedly and it’s an interesting sort of chart just to see OECD in blue and non-OECD in red and you can see that that’s their growth this sticky upness or sticky downers and am that you can see the major growth obviously comes from the non-OECD but as the OECD goes down also the non-OECD comes down as well because they are the exporters to the OECD who are the importers The building on unemployment is high and in Europe is on the rise forget Japan their story is too complicated to go into so will deal with blue and red at the height of the crisis we can say that both were 10% unemployment and even 2011 both that 10% of long time about 10% 10 said 10% making 20 just numbers making 20 at the moment now America’s come down United States has come down and Europe’s gone up than the number still about 20 if we treat her United States and Europe as a whole unemployment is still averaging at about 10% and I’m thinking of that for the demand side and for the mental arms thoughts of businesses is this good enough for me to invest into and things like that right to move onto China’s trade impacted by the Euro crisis that what they call it but I wouldn’t call that and it’s our last chart and 2009 right over far left we got the great recession get now these are China’s exports by destination year-on-year growth in CV at the numbers are minus minds 20 and 30 at the height of the great recession on the depths of the great recession and there problem is a mean that is China destination North America in blue at Asia in green and the Eurozone in red so they’ve swung right back up 50% in 2010 but that was a year-on-year increase from the great recession depths so they didn’t have much to beat so to beaches at 50% was acceptable and normal you can see it come down and down ever since then these are exports to the destinations read Eurozone is now down below the zero line and the other two have been tracking down since 2010 and that’s the big picture and that sums it up but the demand side from the OECD the buying the importing of exports manufacturing from non-OECD is going down that set that’s the picture that’s the whole big picture at the way the world works OECD buys stuff that non-OECD makes OECD is short of money demand is limited for those imports naturally the non-OE OECD contracts as well double contraction world recession somewhere somewhere along the line and needs to be more demand side if the old not OECD in non-OECD system is to be kept going but obviously it’s a ridiculous system that turned demand should be from OECD and the non-OECD is just to provide the things to fill that demand it’s a bad system it’s changing bullwhip court in the in the interregnum between systems and for the moment nobody knows what any new system would be less you do if you do comments by
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