UK Credit Crunch

Here is a rough transcription of the presentation for people who are hard of hearing. Apologies for the lack of grammar, I am working to improve the automated transcriptions -
welcome and will Waldron stay and we go to deal with United Kingdom via the Bank of England statistical release 30th of August 2012 and first chart 6 growth rate of consumer credit along run and the long run is going back to 1995 where consumer credit was increasing at 12% a year and it went up from 12% 1416 nearly 18% year-on-year and we can see from 1995 all awaited 2005 it was up in that sort of region increasing year-on-year of about 15% but in 2005 something happened it started coming down and it’s come down ever since and we can see now that for the last two years it is being below zero consumer credit in the United Kingdom is now not growing at all that have a look at the boring presentation of this consumer credit credit cards and other loans and advances now these aren’t student loans that’s a different table 102+54 gives us a total of £157.1 billion £157 billion is the consumer credit outstanding now impressive and when it goes up and down it either hurts or does well for people that go over to this next one table a lending to individuals secured on dwellings were in a different ballpark where we were hundred and 57 billion we are now at 1000 410,000,001,000 410 billion known to its friends is 1.4 trillion secured on dwellings and the picture or for that is like this the 1995 increasing at 5% and it went to 6% 810 1214 and in 2005 increasing its 16% year-on-year mortgages secured on dwellings debt and then in 2005 it started going down and as we can see from late 2009 to now it is flat at increasing it is still increasing but increasing at 1% and those are the big numbers that’s your 1000 410 billion as opposed to 157,000,000,000 that the big stuff that was really putting the money into the economy go to business and net funds raised by UK businesses and vaguely interesting we can see how that raised the money in loans wrong banks bonds releasing bonds themselves and equity selling an extra into the stock market we can see that equity in bonds haven’t raised nearly as much as loans and loans from 2003 were positive peaking in 2007 and it’s come down and down and those loans now its 2008 generally every year have been being paid back there’s a slight increase in the latest release but the UK also has just gone into recession so we can presume that business leaders understand that and that will be going negative again businesses are not borrowing which leaves us with this final chart which is level of real household spending going back to 05 increasing on a change basis so it’s real but accounting for inflation and it tried to go up to 2008 and that was the great recession it came down and everyone thought well it’ll soon be all finished but it then came down again so we’ve been up to 100 in 2007 and now we’re down at 93 basically at the equivalent her inflation-adjusted spending as at the depths of the recession and back same as backing 05 and that is because borrowing has gone down spending goes down and the businesses don’t lend and wages government go down and everything contracts and the powers that be think that they’ve got to do something about this and I wish them luck because the big idea is to start this lending borrowing getting into debt more credit get it all going again I don’t fancy their chances in that with you by

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  • Bigcollapso

    Mystic, You’ve nailed it.

    • http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/ Mystic

       I should jolly well hope so.
      I have been thrashing about with this hammer for years now~!

  • axionication1

    Nick, further to your earlier question. This specific posting of yours does not give me an audio file option (kiwi or otherwise), again apple product (I phone). So straight on to the transcript for me (have not read it & thought about it yet).

    Looking at the posted chart I can see why Collapso is so exited. It has the reek of exponential discombobulation about it.

    • http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/ Mystic

      Ah yes ….. the famous exponential discombobulation reek (EDR).

  • windslice

    And here come the figures….

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9524858/OECD-slashes-UK-growth-forecasts-to-0.7pc.html

    “the OECD said UK GDP would contract by 0.7pc this year”

    I have a little issue understanding the correlation of GDP with all the borrowing and spending. With all that borrowing and increasing the debt pile, I would have expected to see much more GDP growth in the peiod from 2000 to 2005. Now the increase in debt is down to some 1%, even at zero interest rates, why hasn’t the GDP fallen off a cliff instead of slipping serenely just below zero?

    And here is Larry Summers, FWIW, 

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/9525670/Larry-Summers-warns-of-1930-slump-threat-to-UK-economy.html

    The UK is heading for a 30′s slump…..

    And over in Japan, where Keynes and QE have failed to deliver the promised Nirvana of never ending growth and prosperity.

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/thomaspascoe/100019765/at-last-japan-may-be-about-to-abandon-its-disastrous-keynesian-consensus/

    Maybe they are about to go into reverse gear and balance the budget?

    Probably won’t work either, but “a change is a good as a rest”, as my grandma used to say.

    The next couple of months will see a bit more volatility as TPTB come back to work and pursue their dreams of world domination.

    Anyway, I am going for the Windslice theory of Economies.

    “An economy may be able to defy gravity for a while, but in the end will come back down to Earth, where the affordable living standard is directly in proportion to the productive capacity of the country plus net positive balance of trade”

    Those great Thieving Nations of the past, such as Spain, France, Holland and the UK have run out of foreign lands to plunder.

  • windslice

    The UK is on the mend…..

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/9529151/UKs-double-dip-recession-over-economic-surveys-hint.html

    The dubla-dippa is over!

    I don’t believe it myself, but maybe we are in for a Trippla-Dippa?

    • http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/ Mystic

      Funny ………. the word – `Trippla-dippa`, came to my mind this morning also.