US depends

Here is a rough transcription of the presentation for people who are hard of hearing. Apologies for the lack of grammar, I am working to improve the automated transcriptions -
hello all this opening one is a calculated risk chart of the Philly Fed it really doesn’t matter what it is but it is in fact the state coincident index number of states showing increasing activity and then you’ve got a note in the middle of it but it really doesn’t matter what it is and it’s quite a consistent one and that’s why put it up with got the red sticky downlines only stick down below that read across line when there’s going to be a recession or when there is a recession you can see in the double dip of the 8082 recession are very clearly sticking down into it sticking down into 91 recession sticking down into the 01 recession the next one is the 911 recession that was never called and then we get to the great recession we can see what was the threatening a double dip recession of a year ago and now gone slightly deeper into the pink now I’ll do couple more charts but this is just to show that America is doing all right it’s blah it’s not particularly good but it’s all right but it has the capability of falling into recession if things go wrong this next one out the glass skin chef circle be a David Rosenberg chart and again it doesn’t matter really what it is that its core X orders and you can see doesn’t go back as far as the other one it just points down into the 01 recession points down quite late into the great recession and hasn’t come down arm into the double dip it wasn’t it wasn’t a false indicator for that double-decker year ago but it’s really come down below the line of zero arm on this particular chart again showing that there is capability for the United States to fall into recession but I think it’d have to be caused by Annex Journal arm problem coming in and probably from Europe or China or the rest of the world slows down which Paul’s America down otherwise America would have been running blah that is capable of being pulled into recession this is a good one from Doug Short now the durable goods orders report just came out and it was really quite good way wasn’t bad anyway but what don’t it has done in this chart going back to 1992 or something like that he’s made it real which means it’s that calm being adapted to inflation and per capita he’s also put in the rise in population of the United States which he often does but a lot of people don’t do this but always a solid rise in population certainly over an extended period like this and that rising population should always be taken into account more people there should be buying more durable goods over this period and we can see from the opening period 1992 up to the dot-com crash it was bottom left top right of 500 bucks worth of durable goods went up to 700 bucks worth of durable goods that came fell down back almost 500 bucks worth through the dot-com crash it raised up slightly as people were putting new goal durable goods into their houses but as the great recession came in it went down hallway to 400 bucks and is pouring it way back up very very slowly from there but the big takeaway is it was at 700 bucks in 2000 and is now 450 bucks it’s a long long way down from where it was finish with this and chart it from the St Louis Fed but that manufacturing jobs as a percent of all jobs is put on by Mitch and it’s a good chart manufacturing jobs as a percent of all jobs starting all way back to the Second World War and you conceive the pointy bit just to the left of the M4 manufacturing was the Second World War the GIs came home and they went making as many tanks and jeeps and battleships so it all fell down and the manufacturing jobs as a percent of all jobs fell down to where it was before the Second World War and you can see what has happened ever since it’s been top left to bottom right absolutely and totally consistently as manufacturing jobs become less as a percentage of all jobs I put this in because a lot of people are saying that America needs are more manufacturing jobs to be wealthy again or other countries need more manufacturing jobs a lot has happened in the United States since the Second World War the bean booms and there have been busts and the booms and busts of all happened while managing manufacturing jobs as a percentage of all jobs has been going slowly dying and dine undying so it will be a factor in why things are potentially could be pulled into a recession again today but it is not the factor because a lot is happening since the Second World War with that one single picture always being the same consistent loss of manufacturing jobs as a percentage of all Joe jobs total be a factor but it’ll be a factor compare it thrown in with many other factors but that is our motto as a shockingly graphic description of where America is gone with that manufacturing jobs but does show that there have been boom times of the United States is a lot better condition people live happier more wealthy more prosperous lives now than they did after the Second World War always manufacturing jobs coming down there that William think about it by