Where did da demand go~?

Here is a rough transcription of the presentation for people who are hard of hearing. Apologies for the lack of grammar, I am working to improve the automated transcriptions -
William Lauder so what we’ve got here is JP Morgan’s global manufacturing PMI then backed 2003 2003 to the great recession was just about positive that it was coming down slowly slowly and then plunged into the great recession popped out at a couple of hills went down into an attempted double dip but this time it’s looking solidly down in recession territory it is certainly on the contracting side down below 50 HSBC is flashed China manufacturing PMI is a very similar shape so we don’t need to put the dates in great recession up double at this dipper attempt and for a good while now nearly a year it’s been downing contraction territory in China the details here the overall contraction is now going down at a faster rate output is contracting wary used to be expanding into change of direction new orders contracting faster new export orders are constructing faster employment is contracting at an unchanged great backlog of work is contracting which is a new change of direction output prices declining input prices are declining stock of purchases are contracting at a faster rate and we have expansion here but expansion in stocks of finished goods they are struggling to sell them its inventory build quantity of purchases contraction at a faster rate suppliers delivery times are lengthening all bad news from China we know Europe’s in trouble and they buy lots of the Chinese stuff but let’s have a look at America a decline of the median household income in the whole decade of it in the grey wealth in 1980 320 2000 we can see a decent enough increase 58,000 to 73,000 the last decade it gone down from 73 that thousands 69 1/2 thousand whole lost decade and why is the income going down because less of them are working that’s Americans have got this from Fred that go right back to the start 1950 at the top in red is the boys working over 80% of the boys were working and back in those days about 30% less than a third of the girls were working and everything has changed since what I’ve done have added the 83% of the boys working on said 33% of the girls working divide that by two and get the average 58% of girls and boys were working out of the population in 1980 recession that second well 1982 recession right at the bottom where the boys are gone down and down and hit a kind of bottom are putting the 69% of the working just under 70 they can see that 49% of girls were working it’s really increased a lot divide that by two and the one more working in 1982 the where in 1950 the start but really about the same 59% if we jump across to now where we are at the end of the chart their 65% of boys working 53% of girls divide by two and we’re still at 59% but if we look just before the lost decade at the end of the Internet boom 72% of boys were working 58% of girls divide that by two you got 65% of the population working which has gone down to the old old average of 59 now because less of a more working there is less demand and less demand for the junk that China builds at St by

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  • windslice

    Is diss da nu format?

    If so, then just two comments.

    Unimportantly

    - Can’t see what you’ve stuck on yer head (or which cup yer drinking from)

    More importantly

    - No clicky links to hyperleap me to the Source of da stuff

    • http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/ Mystic

       I just checked …… and it looks like I can put the link into a presentation.
      I will try next time.
      See how we go.
      I am trying to make it easier and quicker (as fewer and fewer people are watching~!)

      • windslice

        Yep, it has gone sort of quiet around here.

        Wonder what happened? There was a flurry of activity over money creation and banking and then it all died away. Perhaps they are all away on summer holidays.

        I see that the central banks feel the need to justify their actions and are putting out some propaganda on both sides of the Atlantic about how their actions have boosted pension schemes, supported asset prices and ensured the “recession” was not even worse than it is. I suppose we have to accept what they say.

        But difficult to see how they can now reverse out of their positions, selling bonds and raising interest rates? Maybe not even in my lifetime. They are still talking about reducing interest rates even further. It’s Japan coming to the west. It’s a mess.

        A flat lining economy is the only future possible for a lot of economies. Martenson recently pointed out that the blasted boomers are not sticking to the “deal”. If there was indeed ever a deal. Instead of retiring and going into spend mode, the buggers are planning on working a few more years.

        The thought of two decades of retirement is maybe a little daunting to those with no interests outside of work. I myself find it now difficult to work out how I managed to find time to work. There are so many things that fascinate me.

        Time to eat. Maybe a pizza tonight might be good.

        • http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/ Mystic

           Pizza is fascinating (if you make your own).

          I think central banks are worried they are going to get blamed for bailing out the banks.
          That’s why I think they will go and ask government what they can do for them.

          • windslice

            Pizza was OK. Can’t be bothered in cooking at home, paid EUR 4 for a reasonable construction out of cheese and salami by an Italian guy. I suppose I eat to survive, rather than living to eat. There is always something I would rather be doing than sitting down and having two hour meals.

            I think that the governments are seen as bailing out the banks. The CB’s have put themselves in the “economic stimulus” park, although essentially they have bailed out the banks.

            But is there anything else the CB’s can do?

            They have reduced the cost of government borrowing to zero.

            They have reduced the interest rates to zero.

            They have issued propaganda keeping the inflation expectations at a minimum.

            The ECB can do quite a bit more (at the risk of upsetting the Germans), but the BoE and Fed are surely pretty much at the limit although monetising more government debt has to be on the cards.

            As you said, we are now five years down the line since the crisis blew up. The “unusual” policy responses have become the new “normal” responses. There is no sign of any substantial economic growth across the western economies.

            Looks like they have reached the summit and fallen, peaking on a final real estate bubble.

  • windslice

    The UK

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/aug/26/yvonne-roberts-working-people-hit-by-cuts
    Actually a rather piss-poor article. But this comment sums it up.

    “ found this article interesting and read it twice. And the one major thing I took away from it (as a non-Briton) is how self-entitled British folks come across as. Even the “solutions” provided at the end seem mostly of expecting the government to provide and take care of you. I’m not quite sure if Britons truly ever realize how they come across to much of the world. My spouse (British) is wealthy and has never had a disadvantaged life but still seems to be severely afflicted with this mentality that the government needs to help poor and disadvantaged people with benefits and housing. It’s frustrating to deal with, but it seems to be a cultural phenomenon.”

    Yep, the Nanny State mentality has completely taken over. The government will provide and make things better. And that is what is expected, that is what we are paying taxes for, isn’t it?. Employers are forced into complying with regulations set up to support the Nanny State. And that is why we are in the bloody mess.

    In Asia you will not find a Nanny State.

    Want to sell clothes from your front garden?

    Noodle soup stand?

    Small convenience store in your front room?

    Laundry?

    Restaurant?

    All no problem, no hassle.

    Try doing that in the UK.

    • http://www.alda-architects.co.uk/ Alan

       We could certainly do with major relaxation in Planning restrictions, they are a major cost to the economy and cause of delay. Most of it is utterly pointless, self opinionated and subjective. Yes we need Planning but do we really need approval to build decking more than 300mm off the ground or build a room at the side of the house?

      There is a lot of other ‘beneficial’ legislation and how it is imposed that  adds layers of officialdom and cost. Disabled access, Health and Safety, the energy rating nonsense, all the equality stuff, employment legislation, maternity leave….. Some of it is inappropriately applied at ferocious cost on small businesses and a lot of it is counter productive, hence short term employment contracts etc. Even when desirable the manner of applying is itself inappropriate and often fragmented and cumbersome. An utter mess and a serious cost to the economy.

      I prefer to consider the fundamental parts of the nanny state, health & education, some sort of safety net as a mutual insurance scheme. Provided they are run simply and efficiently not a problem, but they are not and are often used as political footballs.

      • windslice

        I can go with a simple and efficiently run safety net.

        But the guys in charge have their ambitions to “grow the business”.

        If there is no hard requirement to balance the books and make a profit, the government will always think of more stuff to regulate, support and manage.

        • http://www.alda-architects.co.uk/ Alan

           Wouldn’t it be a pleasant surprise to have a shrinking government with most of its services run locally where we can check how they spend. The one that always astounds me is the overrun in defence contracts.

          The amount of money that Governments seem to be able to waste is staggering and seldom is anyone held to account.

          • windslice

            A “pleasant surprise” is not coming up your way any time. The last thing they want is being held locally accountable by the tax payers.

            The whole military thing is a total waste. They have a licence to print money based on “we need to defend the country”, and they can conjure up all sorts of possible threats to defend against.

  • Gavazzfromoz

    can you do a vid on gold changing from tear 3 asset to tear 1 asset.

  • modernmystic

    I need more viewers and especially COMMENTERS. It seems folks are too good to listen to me preach about how they should SAVE their money now that they hear the thing about me not paying taxes.

  • augustine

    In another off the point entry, can’t we use natural gas to make methanol.  The US has soo much natural gas and we need gasoline.  Seems like a natural fit.

  • Bigcollapso

    The concept of “demand” is very broken in economics. In the physical world, the force to drive something comes from somewhere. That somewhere is the first mathematical point to understanding how something actually works.
    Economics tries to invert this, like pushing on a string.
    I will be glad when modern economics if fully discredited.