Here is a rough transcription of the presentation for people who are hard of hearing. Apologies for the lack of grammar, I am working to improve the automated transcriptions -
William Lauder so what we’ve got here is JP Morgan’s global manufacturing PMI then backed 2003 2003 to the great recession was just about positive that it was coming down slowly slowly and then plunged into the great recession popped out at a couple of hills went down into an attempted double dip but this time it’s looking solidly down in recession territory it is certainly on the contracting side down below 50 HSBC is flashed China manufacturing PMI is a very similar shape so we don’t need to put the dates in great recession up double at this dipper attempt and for a good while now nearly a year it’s been downing contraction territory in China the details here the overall contraction is now going down at a faster rate output is contracting wary used to be expanding into change of direction new orders contracting faster new export orders are constructing faster employment is contracting at an unchanged great backlog of work is contracting which is a new change of direction output prices declining input prices are declining stock of purchases are contracting at a faster rate and we have expansion here but expansion in stocks of finished goods they are struggling to sell them its inventory build quantity of purchases contraction at a faster rate suppliers delivery times are lengthening all bad news from China we know Europe’s in trouble and they buy lots of the Chinese stuff but let’s have a look at America a decline of the median household income in the whole decade of it in the grey wealth in 1980 320 2000 we can see a decent enough increase 58,000 to 73,000 the last decade it gone down from 73 that thousands 69 1/2 thousand whole lost decade and why is the income going down because less of them are working that’s Americans have got this from Fred that go right back to the start 1950 at the top in red is the boys working over 80% of the boys were working and back in those days about 30% less than a third of the girls were working and everything has changed since what I’ve done have added the 83% of the boys working on said 33% of the girls working divide that by two and get the average 58% of girls and boys were working out of the population in 1980 recession that second well 1982 recession right at the bottom where the boys are gone down and down and hit a kind of bottom are putting the 69% of the working just under 70 they can see that 49% of girls were working it’s really increased a lot divide that by two and the one more working in 1982 the where in 1950 the start but really about the same 59% if we jump across to now where we are at the end of the chart their 65% of boys working 53% of girls divide by two and we’re still at 59% but if we look just before the lost decade at the end of the Internet boom 72% of boys were working 58% of girls divide that by two you got 65% of the population working which has gone down to the old old average of 59 now because less of a more working there is less demand and less demand for the junk that China builds at St by
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