Ownership

  By Mystic | July 2, 2012 - 09:05 |

If you haven’t by now made a post, or even made a comment; then I’m not sure I want you hanging around here any more.
I am thinking of ways to get rid of you and deal only with the people who interact.
If that means that 30 people tune in, instead of 300 ……. so be it.
This is nothing to do with subscriptions or anything like that.
It is just that I am thinking that 30 people interacting together would be better than what we have got at the moment.
Comments please~!?
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Written by: Mystic on July 2, 2012.
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  • Andrew_m_norris

    Hi Nick was quiet surprised at your call for non-interacters to go their way! I first came across you a couple of years ago whilst looking for Adam Curtis documentaries. It took me a long time to start interacting!

    At the time i knew even less than i do about economics now and its largely through you that i know what i know now, which although is very little indeed, is surprisingly more than most. Yes those little nuggets of wisdom like “did you know all of the taxes you pay are destroyed rather than spent” have made me feel like a ‘right clever b’stard’ down the pub over the years. Yet i think the conversations they have caused and the thinking they have provoked have been valuable for everyone involved and via butterfly effect society in general. Some little bits of economics that i now know, i believe are so important that everyone should know! A bit like housewives doing yoga, they probably wont turn into enlightened pundits, but just turning down the amplitude of neurosis is of benefit to their husbands and wider society surely? I guess what im trying to say is that even the non interacters will do some good whether they like it or not and therefore still have some value, so why not let them stay?  Also perhaps one day they will feel confident enough to start joining in. 

    Your clear, intelligent approach to things and the quality of the commenters insights can be quiet intimidating   
    for people who are not used to economics or ‘blogging’. Give them a little time and  they will get around to interacting or just ‘drop off’ eventually. I think  OTP probably has evolved a 30 people average interactive cohort from a 300 or so passive cohort, Perhaps this is some sort of biological type equilibrium and if you mess with the 300 you mess with the 30? 

    • Andrew_m_norris

      Odd im usually posted as Boz !?

      • http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/ Mystic

         This is obviously about me.
        I have been having trouble lately when preparing presentations, because I have lost direction of who I am preparing them for.
        When I do a video, I have someone (or special group of someones) in mind when I am talking ……. I am talking to them.
        Lately, I have had plenty of information, but have not been able to get a grip on who to present it to.

        I have tried `just presenting to anyone and everyone`, but I don’t think it works …. (and I am not inspired to do it).

        It is also linked to the idea I have lately that most people don’t really care, or understand how to care, or care to understand.

        I am thinking if there was one group (the group), I would soon know them all well and present stuff that I know would interest them. …………. .(and, more important, they would know that their input was between the group (and not open to the eyes of the people who don’t care to understand)).

        (I am not a naturally out-going type of person ….. I have no idea why I am doing this anyway~!).

        • Arif

          community, community….new fashion nowadays. Even here :P

          My hint – history. Im lacking with history knowladge how people deal in “crisis” mode (not charts). This could be interesting and usefull. 

        • Haploid

          Hello Mystic, its a shame you feel like you are making these videos for a target audience because I think the one defining aspect of your videos is that you tell us  REALLY (about an important topic or topics) how it is and do not distort the facts, not intentionally anyway.
          Can you imagine if your videos were aired on something like the BBC or FOX news, you’d be tabooed all the way back to where you came from.  So that makes you one of the good guys in my book Nick, given the current climate of mass media dissinformation
          If people do use your videos as a ‘pub discussion’ as an ego boost then we’ve got bigger problems than I initially thought.  I think your video content is fine and has been for the past 4-5 years so dont change a thing, if that helps with giving you a sense of direction.  You are doing your bit to raise true awareness and maybe thats not your intention but that’s what is conveyed by your videos and is something to be proud of isn’t it? 

            

          • http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/ Mystic

             Thanks Haploid ………. message received.

        • Anonymouson

          Hello Nick,

          I don’t think that you have thought this through – this would mean that in order for me to enjoy your presentation, I would have to get more active – which would mean that you would regularly have to endure several unbearably dumb comments from me. Not pleasant at all, believe me :) 

          • http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/ Mystic

             It is the honest dumb questions that I like ………. and the smart-arse (ass) ones that I so dislike.

        • Boz

          Ze internet Ze numbers game no? Just present to your ideal listeners and they will eventually appear; its the most likely zeitgeist i know.

          I think people care when they are allowed to this is the opportunity the Franciscan offers through begging alms. Sounds like you want to present to the Franciscans rather than the people.

          Not surprising after being whacked by the recking ball of heart surgery that your directions are a bit wobbly maybe you should make yourself some presentations. Imagine what would you enjoy being presented with ?

          • http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/ Mystic

             I know what I like to be presented with (I seek them out every day).

            It is heavy heavy dooood stuff.  (`stretching` I believe they call it in academic circles)

            • Boz

              I like the idea of OTP being a kind of digital enlightenment coffee shop rather than an intellectuals club. A bit of spit and saw-dust is healthy, often i learn much from watching my reactions to freaks like neo-con Paul or Introvert and using the effort criteria, who could beat Gary !? There is a fantastic place just outside of Oxford set up as ‘a meeting place for unlike minds” a more beautiful, interesting and diverse place would be hard to find. You may be interested in some of the ‘stretching’ of its instigator Wilfrid Trotter 1872 -1939. 
              http://www.braziers.org.uk/research-and-publications/wilfred-trotter/

        • Mzagar

           I have to say that I have learned a lot from you, about economic systems and how they work.

          The problem I see is the distortion of “truth”/facts. It is nice for the politicians to discuss about support packages, when they actually talk about giving loans … Reducing CO2 when they really are talking about saving oil reserves and domestic costs … It is frustrating to follow the “news”.

          It is about learning to read between the lines. One way to shut down people is to overwhelm them with negativity and negative news, that way even the slightest positive move looks heroic.

        • axionication1

          Will put my bottle of piss down & stumble over to the pub. Can’t say that I think I have much to offer… but will give it a go regardless ( time & brains are few).

          Probably good for me’ & only fair to you too.

          • http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/ Mystic

            Axion (another person putting themself down (under).

            What’s wrong with all you people.  Who knocked all the piss out of ye`~!?

            • axionication1

              As usual a combination of things the biggest being that I just seem to be saying stuff & doing 0.

              • http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/ Mystic

                No worries.
                Anyone who knows what to do …… is full of shit~!

    • Anonymouson

      Fantastic reply. It surely is not easy to just “jump into” these discussions..

  • Arif

    hehe, Nick wants to have more interaction (to boost learning proces) by kicking out “viewers” ;)

    First (two paths how too increase interaction) 
    As you said – Maybe a better way to adobt is to invite most of the interesting people for a real tea? 
    From what I understand you wanted to incease interaction…. so maybe this is a better path – drink tea, have a chat, share ideas, explore new concepts. 

    In my opinion kicking players from the game will not increase interaction (new ideas). I just dont see how “kicking out players” can provide more valuable comments based on strong interaction. 

    Second (contradition):
    This is an contradition to me. You said that you like to follow people who bring some value to hummanity. I assume that you also want to give something to hummanity (all those free videos are enermous work)… and at the same time you want to kick out players becouse they are not boosting you :/ So you want to bring some value to society as a whole, or your main driver of OTP videos  is to boost your learning proces? 

    Maybe those 300 viewers are watching OTP and boosting Polish blogs for example? What if they are sharing their knowledge with other communities? 

    Why you want to kick out other players? What is a main reason to kick them out?

  • John_by_the_creek

    Dear Mr. Mystic:
     
    Maybe a “group build”….
     
    Wikis in Plain English
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-dnL00TdmLY

  • Introvert

    Who do you think you are? The internet is built on folks like me who passively watch videos without commenting. The whole world is build on that same principal. What about all the introverts who don’t want to talk or comment. And ironically, you dumb fuck didn’t even allow comment on your dumb ass mandatory comment writing.

    • Boz

      Being an introvert means you only truly relax alone not that you have social problems !

  • Anne Panne

    I’d rather watch Mystic videos than TV or the like. But that’s where I come from. TV don’t encourage interaction. Most of the time I don’t even think straight for all the noise of it.
    I find you to offer a small oasis of reason. But there are precious few topics where I’m confident to add to the discussion. I might even do the opposite – subtract. Or worse – distort. You wouldn’t like that, would you?
    How ever, I can ask more questions, but they might not be intelligent ones or very well phrased.

    • eastex

       And don’t use words like “exponential”, or he’ll mock you for it, even if your input was thought out.

    • http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/ Mystic

       I think I can tell the difference between well-meaning questions (even if ignorant and not well phrased) ….. and show-off comments.

      I welcome the first type of question, but can do without the other~!

  • Nascentmind

    Some people, need to watch the interactions to learn. If  they can not comment out of
    fear of being judged, They fail to see the point of overthepeak, as i see it. It is free and frank polite’ish
    discussion. NO One Should fear anyone here. There is no danger to anyone who takes part. ;).

    Its a wonderful place. (keep me IN Captain)
    (replace strawberry with Overthepeak)

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HTXyoPVOUso 

    • http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/ Mystic

       You’re in Matt.
      You are in~!

    • Emmazedbend

      Yes it’s the only completely civilised forum I know; that’s because of the headship; it is quite unique.

      • Emmazedbend

        Oh dear just read the ‘piece’ by introvert down below I bet S/he wouldn’t talk to anyone like that face to face.

        • http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/ Mystic

           That is maybe most of the point (Introvert).
          It is possible to just drop in unannounced and dump on anyone and everyone.
          That may be how the Internet `is` most places, but that does not mean it has to be here.

          We’ll see how it goes Emma …… but, I think we can keep OTP clean~!?

          • Emmazedbend

            Yes as you say just because its accepted around the internet that doesn’t need to inform how things are done here.

            • http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/ Mystic

               Standard setters ……. not standard followers, that’s us; eh girl~!?

              • Emmazedbend

                I was going to ‘star’ out some of the comments but I couldn’t find a way of doing it; there is an inner dictator in me somewhere.

                • http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/ Mystic

                   You just know what you want.
                  (I’ll have a quick look and see if Disqus will take `star ratings`)

    • http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/ Mystic

      (At a push) …. I went to school in Penny Lane (if that helps~!?)

  • eastex

    Hi Nick, I have been working for an oil services company for many years. As such, my real world experience about costs and efforts spent chasing energy effects my view of the world, just as your life experiences effect yours. As you know, I am more of a oildrum junky than a banking wiz. But, that does not mean that I refuse to indulge my curiosity by watching your videos. Like most who commented already, I just don’t have an educated input for most of the topics involving banking.

    P.S. I think you should reconsider your new and rather simplistic view of the people as either givers or takers. There are, probably, more levels than that. Imagine that even the casual viewer had to be more active that a person who spends his free time listening to “Hotel California” for the five hundredth time.

  • Anne Panne

    After watching the video I was a bit annoyed.

    As a dairy farmer I work most all the time. But I admit to take a few breaks, which sometimes are spent at OTP, sometimes at other sites.  As for contributing – I thought I did a little, just by watching.

    Yes, I am guilty of using material provided here. Not to impress anyone – just to add to conversations I’m all ready in. To day I mentioned something I’ve picked up here, when I helped the Vet in the cowshed.

    But then it dawned on me – Mystic feel like he is crying in the wood – as if nobody is really listening.

    I do – and I find it useful. Do you really think that’s bad?

    • http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/ Mystic

       It is not `bad` Anne, but it could be better.
      I would like to know that there is and Anne listening, who is a dairy farmer.
      I listen to Farming Today most mornings and read any number of farm related stuff (price wars in milk etc.) that I can put into a presentation to make more people aware/interested ……….. but, I won’t if you just lurk in the darkness~!

      • Anne Panne

         I can understand that you need some feedback.
         I used to comment on several sites – mostly in my own language. Then I thought I knew something. Now I know I don’t.
        It’s rather a large challenge to write coherent texts on difficult subjects in English, but I’ll try – if that can make you feel better.

  • SeanTheLight

    I imagine I hover somewhere near the cut-off point. I watch OTP’s videos daily, read the posts, half the time will click through to comments, but rarely make a comment. For me it is a feeling of “having walked into class late”.

    I try to form a comment when there is a request for public response. I worry about my level of ignorance (both actual and as perceived by others) so I prefer to stay quiet and absorb the lessons on a day-to-day basis. I do not want to be locked out for my lack of participation. I would like a more interactive experience (say a chat room), where I can ask “all my dumb questions” without it leaving a permanent and public mark on a website that I have a very high opinion of.

    • http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/ Mystic

       It is this `Oh, I am ignorant` that I want to get past.
      If I close the doors (with you inside), you may feel easier about asking `silly questions`.

      Because it is open for all to see, people either don’t ask, or make silly comments trying to show what they do know (which is usually wrong and no good to anyone).

      So, there we are …… I would be trying to create an atmosphere where people feel at ease to ask their silly questions~!

  • http://www.alda-architects.co.uk/ Alan Warren

    Nick

    We are all from differing backgrounds, with varying expertise and outlooks. Does it follow that, because a person does not respond in an economics debate, that they are not using and adopting the information in their own field? They could be giving somewhere else. 

    I would imagine that most of those who follow your presentations are seekers of information. They are goats rather than sheep. Some may not comment here because of inhabitation, or perhaps a belief that you may not be interested in the implications of energy production, banking (or whatever) on market gardening or the concept of zero carbon homes? 

    If you find motoring in 3rd a bit of a drag, move up a gear, goats are fairly nimble.

    Are you being an agent provocateur or is this a mid life blog crisis?

  • pw

    Im learning all the while and I believe I have a good analyitical mind but find it difficult to articulate the detail of my thoughts concisely. 
    When an issue is raised that strikes a cord I tend to spend hours on a response which invariably gets  either binned by me or if posted gets unexpected comments. I can claim a 5 year (aka pardonwhat) tenure but cannot claim a track record worthy of being kept in the top 50.I would find an exclusion a great loss so here’s hoping you dont pull the shutters down but this is not about me, so “Thanks for all the fish” whatever you decide.

    • http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/ Mystic

       Yes, I remember the last efforts.  Too heavy …. too  precise.

      If you were talking down the pub, your friends would walk out on you if you tried either approach (unless you were buying).

      From the above comments, I am finding that what I am after is creating somewhere where you can comment ………… just like if you were talking to your friends down the pub (or asking advice from one of them). 

      • pw

        Ok,,,, its a journey out of the framework of my comfort zone having been in a technical silo for so long.. but feck it, it sounds like an exciting personnal challenge.
        If there is still space at the table, lll get my share of rounds in.

        • http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/ Mystic

           I’ve done a video (will be up later (my) today).
          Of course there will be places at the table~!

  • Randall

    Finland announced today that it will block European Support Mechanism secondary bond purchases. while Spanish Finance Ministry warned Q2 GDP might (interpreted by me ~Will) be worse than Q1.  All this while the Financial Times stated that the UK Treasury has called off its weekly gilt auctions for a four-week period between mid-July and mid-August, based on expectation too many bond traders will be working from home – or not at all – during the Olympics.  Our Olympic sized Domino is set up in Final Position on the board.  Will all the little dominos that fall against this Olympic distraction have any affect?

    • http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/ Mystic

       I am getting info that says Finland can’t block (not even with Holland) … 15% needed.

      • Randall

        The Union is a union of agreement, and agree even with others such as Holland the objection is only that.  I should have said Objection rather than Block.  Today we get more insight into the objection, which others may come round to agree…Finnish Finance Minister, Jukka Pekkarinen remains adamant that passing funds to Spanish banks should be in exchange for collateral.

        • http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/ Mystic

           ….and I am sure that is what he will push.  (but it is not very important, is it~?)

  • M__F

    Please don’t delete me! I’ve been following you for probably about 2 years now since the YouTube days, I don’t comment or post too often but I love the presentations, and especially your attitude toward figuring this stuff out. I’m traveling around on my boat now, the adventure’s going great but I don’t get much time to get online anymore so it would be hard for me to take part in the discussions, I just download your mp3′s in ports. (shameless plug- if anyone wants to check out my journey so far it’s at sailboatdiaries.com)

    • lgrinaker

      My goodness… I don’t know, Nick.  It looks like you’ve got quite an audience here, and from various parts of the world.  I wish I could say I was on a sailboat like M_F (how fantastic! – thanks for your videos of the open water… beautiful…).  I know I haven’t been chiming in very often these days, and I’m not sure I’ll be able to do much in the future (various things are changing on my end), but I do value what you do here, and I value that others do too.

      Heck, you know some of what you brought forward on here turned my world upside down in some key ways – very refreshing!  It’s made for some new decisions in my life and in association with others, which might never have come to be in my life without some of that mind-shifting you helped to bring about.  So, I’ll always have that, ;-).

      Anyway, whatever the case regarding what you decide to do with this site you’ve made, I wish you, and all the regular commenters and the silent viewers, well…

      Linda

  • CSArichardo

    For me it started with World Economic News.  Still cannot imagine the discipline required to do that everyday, but I love seeing that joker chart return every month.  You actually managed to encourage me to post a few years ago which was a great thing to do as I still try to do it from time to time!!  There is of course a fine line between chatting and trying to learn from each other.  I think ”we” have balanced that well on OTP !  

    • http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/ Mystic

       Yes, I think we have done quite well …………. but, could do better~!

  • Mzagar

    An effective way to get rid of site visitors is to enforce log-in , and start banning people. Looking at how this site has changed the last 2-3 months, I would say that you do not lack people commenting. BTW. Is this what they call Hubris . . .

  • CSArichardo

    Now on Leonardo’s recent paper we have to ask ourselves does this include shale gas and if so we know som of the recent reports shows double depletion rates so this might have a big impact on his study?

    However on the other side of the coin what happens if we are currently in an oil/gas investment bubble and we actually do get overcapacity because of all the money that is going into new discovery and production ?

  • Agodina6

    I am a machinist in southern wisconsin usa.  I believe in peak oil or liquid flowrates of oil.  I have tried since 2008 to wrap my head around the stuff and believe if not for iraq oil or fracking we in the us would be really having a hard time of it right now. I dont know what a difference fracking will be (some say it will be a big difference and some dont) and thank you for your updates about it.  I believe in the science of global warming over the non science against it.  I am trying to build resiliancy in my life but know it could be for naught if the midwest becomes a dustbowel.  I hope you think of me as a friend and I will try to post and link more.

    • http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/ Mystic

       For me, in short-hand …….. frackin’ just ain’t Saudi Arabia~!

      It doesn’t look like much is going to be done about `global weathering` ….. so ….. I am not going to worry my pretty head about it.
      Water availability may be a more direct drying up of the mid-west way of life~!

      Please do post and link more.
      We all have things to contribute~!

  • Lyle

    Nahhh… bad idea Nick. :)

    “enough is never enough” – you know that.

    I’ve read and enjoyed most all the comments thus far ( except one of course ). I’ve read virtually every comment made for many years. Matt has caused me to think every time I use – dashes. :)
    I use … like you often used to do in most everything I write now and trying to cut back on even that. No run on sentences – OMG!  I’m now beginning to use this thing  ~!  :)

    I used to be just the smartest kid on the block – now I may be the smartest kid in the town. :)

    I agree with those who have mentioned that this bunch can be intimidating – especially to newcomers. I have little doubt your works have influenced, if not significantly brought changes to many more peoples lives than you might imagine. Being just 1 person – I have forwarded many many videos and links posted here to those who might value them. No doubt others do the same regardless of them making comments or not making comments.

    I used to be unbearably ‘serious’- that along with a tanker full of alcohol damned near killed me.Now… I’m mostly irrepressibly irreverent yet aiming at being more disciplined. :)

    Lighten up and onward through the fog dude!

    • http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/ Mystic

       No.  No, you are wrong~!
      I think I will change life-direction and dedicate myself to two things -

      Getting people to use the `~` thing before `!` and `?` …. because it looks so much better~!

      AND ….

      Getting people to not use the word `then`, when they mean `than`.

      That way, I will have achievable goals in life and so will be happy and content~!!?

  • nate

    Hi Nick

    I have enjoyed the spirit of your vids since your early days. I live in Dallas and have a sister in Madison Wisconsin who watches your commentary daily. She is a teacher and we both enjoy the delightfully eccentric English gentlemen with the unique caps and full beard. We consider your inquiry into current economic events to be intellectually stimulating.  Having a Bypass operation is like a divorce in that it forces your mind to think about what is really important.

    Nate from Dallas

    • http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/ Mystic

      …… I think I’ll try the divorce next time.

  • Mystic

    Frankly, I have just grown tired since I had my heart surgery of the lazy trolls coming here to steal my information that I bust my back side for every day. I just think it will work better with thirty committed viewers willing to pull their weight

  • Mystic

    I am so sick of you lazy trolls sitting back and letting me do all the work

    • Mzagar

       That’s the dilemma.

      Do a poor job and no one will read or listen to what you have to say. Make a good job lots of people will listen to you …

  • Lyle

    I read the comments prior to watching the presentation. Rare for me.

    I love you starting line: “I think I know where I want to go but don’t know how I’m going to get there.”Hell… that’s how I start every day!  :)

    I’ll share a long time experience with you that might parallel some of your feelings regarding the elimination of the free riders.

    I’m near 30 years sober in AA. I still attend meetings regularly. I’ve watched as thousands of younger folks pass through but not really participating or making real efforts. Sooner or later as we say, they’ll be locked up, buried up or sobered up. Too few sober up. Too many die. For all the efforts of those with a few years sober or oldtimers like myself, still far too many simply will not make the smallest effort to save their own lives.

    Such is life. Such is human. Nevetheless we continue to try to ‘pass it on’ for our own continued sobriety and for those few who will be saved from the ravishes of addiction.

    I’ve seen many sit quietly in meetings for a long long while before they actually ‘grab hold’ and start participating. You just never know when, how, or to what extent something you say or do might eventually affect others lives.

    • Mystic

      If you are implying I am on a drunk or am otherwise losing my faculties since my heart surgery, I don’t need preachy lectures from you. 

      • Blacksheep

        Nick,

         

            
        Glad to see your bouncing back after your surgery. I’ve Been a fan since
        the deflationary spiral orange bucket days. I’ve commented a few times over the
        years. Often wondered how you continued to produce insightful videos, at the
        pace you do, I assumed it was a for personal reasons. You regularly cover current
        events/stats. You’ve tried to discuss plans for a new system, after whatever reset
        happens.

         

        Making predictions can be a tricky
        thing due to the endless variables at play, but I would be interested in hearing
        your thoughts and discussing where things may be heading. Yes, I have developed
        my own big picture version. Its a large mental chalkboard documenting current
        beliefs, as of this moment. As new theories flow in and are accepted as sound, old
        beliefs get erased. It is in a constant state of flux. I scanned the Maugeri
        pdf.

        While I agree global recession will
        take oil prices down in the short term, Marugeri’s optimism runs tangent to my opinion
        that IF (big if) growth ever gets traction (lots of deleveraging first) we will
        be bouncing of $ 150 a barrel instantly. This growth governor is a  problem, with our need for constant expansion.

         

        take care

        (Pete)

        Blacksheep       

         

                

                

        • http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/ Mystic

           Thank you.

          (note: there are two `Mystics` commenting here (one of them is not me)). 

      • Lyle

        I was implying neither. Sorry you somehow took it that way. It was a reference to those who don’t participate.

        • http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/ Mystic

           Come on old man ….. keep up~!
          Don’t you recognize a `Stevo` when you read one~? 

  • windman3

    Actually I thought there was more of an issue in attracting “people who think and contribute”. If you kick out all the non-contributors, then how is anybody new going to come along and join in?

    This site is hard enough to find anyway.

    I would suggest that you simply carry on as before, putting up themes that interest you.

    The contributors and less active readers will self-select with time anyway.

  • GarryEntropy

    Strange
    presentation, people ‘stealing’ your information? Do you mean the information
    you ‘steal’ from the web? Using ‘my’ information to appear wise in the pub???
    ”A packet of pork scratchings please and by the way do you realise the whole
    peak oil thing was just a rouse to bump up the price of oil and while your at
    it squire treble whiskeys all round please.”

    Commenting
    on this blog, website, whatever it is, is like walking on eggs, you get
    bollocked for grammatical failures, spelling mistakes, being to stupid, being
    too clever, being to forward, or to backward, it’s no wonder only ten per cent
    comment, and often those that do comment, do so in such a cringe worthy
    sycophantic way its almost too obscene for me tiny brain. Of a morning I scan
    the online papers, the Telegraph, the Guardian, the Mail for comic relief,
    today in the Guardian I read Monbiots piece “We were wrong on Peak
    Oil” afterwards I nip over to Over the peak to hear Nicks take on it and
    its all “Why am I bothering, pearls before swine, get off my website
    trolls.” Is it the because the reason d ‘etre  for the Peak Oil site has been diminished by the bad news or is
    it good news that there is lots more oil than previously thought. There goes me
    cuppa tea.

    • http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/ Mystic

       Hello Garry,
      The `Mystic` that went on about stealing is probably `Stevo`, pretending to be me.
      It is clever and not very useful ….. so Stevo is my bet.

      • lgrinaker

        That’s wild.  I don’t recall that happening before.  Now that you mention it, it looks like “the real you” – perhaps as administrator? – has a star by your name and your name is highlighted with a link to your “authorship archives.”  Not so with the other one.

        Linda

  • Canofworms

     

    As a modern mystic you can be proud, like a zen master with his stick…Ouch,
    guilty as charged, but then again how do you approach a zen master with a
    stick?

    In the now? Perhaps the below will help to make my point, I am being to cryptic
    which is not helpful, take care modern mystic for these are indeed interesting times.

    I will be gone soon, and in these dying
    lasting moments, gazing out onto the full moon, watching my warm breath
    disappear into the cold winters night. I can almost forget the forgotten plight,
    memories and sounds from yesterday consume me, my children laughing as they play
    on their sleigh, and those dark shadows that dance across the frozen bay.  Nothing will be lost to life in all its strive,
    for even when I am taken to walk through that door, I know that I will turn and
    wish to stay just that one moment more.

    • http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/ Mystic

      Time to catch the bus ………… what was her name at work (your boss~?) …… she is calling you~!

      • Canofworms

         Yeah my boss…. she’s a she and she’s black.

  • http://abellia.myopenid.com/ Andrew

    I don’t comment much, but I like to watch.  They videos are always nice, but I can’t always parse your comments (you like the “~” character, and I’m not sure what it means) so I don’t always respond when I might.

    I almost feel like I know you a bit.  I was kind of worried when you said that you were going in for heart surgery – thought about you for a week even when I wasn’t watching.  I tell my friends about the great videos that British guy who lives in France and wears funny hats puts on.I like the funny hats.

    • http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/ Mystic

       Kill!   ….  Kill~!     (which looks better~?)
      Now do you understand?  or not~?

  • snedmeister1

    Good evening Nick..!!! :)

    Big changes on the horizon for OTP..??

    I understand your frustration, and this was obviously a good strategy to get some new comments and ideas flowing, ( Judging by the number of commenters here, it may have given some confidence to keep posting now) but I have a little `niggle`….

    Although it locks out the `sniper` comments, I wonder how new comers would be embraced, or even how they would make initial comments…??

    I am not following how we/ you would be able to find new members…??

    Perhaps you have the idea already up your sleeve..?? :)
    Perhaps I mis-understand how you would close the gates..?? 

    • http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/ Mystic

      I have ideas a plenty……doesn’t mean anything will come of them though.
      (I suspect nothing much will change  ………………… (but it might)). 

  • Mike MickG

    I went
    through the Harvard paper by Leonardo Maugeri a couple times today and wish to
    offer my take on it as a contribution to this site. Although I am not an expert
    on the subject, I have over the years done extensive research on Peak Oil,
    including downloading and evaluating data from US Energy Information
    Administration (EIA)  and British
    Petroleum (BP)  to present  on the topic of the Business Case for Teleworking
    at technology conferences and other interested audiences.

    My take….

    1.     The basic premise of the paper per paragraph
    1 and 3 of executive summary is that the world is awash in oil reserves and
    that production is overtaking consumption to such a rate that we may soon have
    a glut and steep drop in oil prices.  In
    fact we should have another 29 million barrels per day online by 2020.

    2.     Per my reckoning this is about a 35% increase
    in supply per day within the next  7.5
    years.  (I think Pigs will fly without
    drone attachments before this happens and believe the author feels on shifty
    ground based on the conclusion in Appendix A.)

    3.     In the last two paragraphs of the
    appendix  A which conclude the paper the
    author refers to risks alluded to but not cited throughout the paper (there
    should have been an appendix “B” with the risk analysis) then hedges big time
    in the last two paragraphs. Pay special attention to the words in the last
    paragraph “at least in part” this is what I look for in contracts when I do
    business with people and call a weasel clause cause not matter what happens you got your butt covered.

    “I am confident in the results of my analysis, despite
    the high margin of error that every analysis of this kind may face. Most of
    all, however, I am confident of the fundamental message that emerges from my
    analysis: however one may consider the impact of risk-factors, or however one
    may predict the actual evolution of the world’s oil production, the resource
    base under development is huge, much higher than generally believed.”

     

    “In November
    2011, when I started writing this paper, my data and its analysis suggested
    that world’s oil production capacity was about to increase rapidly. Today, it
    is continuing to grow in spite of the instability of the world economy and the
    weakness of oil demand. Unless a major international crisis disrupts a
    significant part of that growing oil production capacity, it is difficult to
    see what might restrain this mounting wave of new oil – at least in part – to
    reach the market by 2020.”

     

    Rebuttal on
    lack of restraint vision: It is not difficult to see what might restrain this
    mounting wave of new oil. We are moving on several trajectories of instability
    and breakdown across a number of critical factors and domains needed for oil
    production and distribution.

     

    Negative
    trajectories

    1.     Debt based monetary system structures
    loosing the ability to affect physical world due to debt consumption.

    2.     The rule of law as it applies to contracts
    and finance shrinking investment pool due to lack of trust.

    3.     Factory production and durable goods
    orders continuing to shrink.

    4.     Oil Transportation costs skyrocketing
    due to need for increased Military projection.

    5.     Environmental tail costs of oil
    production.   

    a.     Water – Surface and groundwater
    depletion and pollution –  Shale & Tar
    Sands production.  

    b.     Air – Gas burns on shale plays.

     

    My Summary:

    1.     Current trajectories of key
    production factors will not enable sustained production increases to 2020.

    2.     Assuming the premise of the paper is
    correct, the closer we get to an oil glut the faster production will drop off
    as there will not be any EROI (Energy Return on Investment) or FROI (Financial
    Return On Investment).

    3.     The plateau is peaking.

    • http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/ Mystic

       This is wasted as a comment.
      With a few tweaks, it would make a post ….. and good discussion point.

      (are you not one of the Mikes that has `author` powers~?)

      • Mcgarritymichaelp

        Mr. Mystic,
        I don’t believe I have author powers, please share if I do. Your point about a post rather than comment is well taken, and I would have spiffed it up a bit a post and it would have come in later due to extra time required.  My experience in the realm of blogs and posts and comments is rather limited so  thanks for the pointer on pub conversations for comments.
        All the best!
        Mike 

        • http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/ Mystic

           Hello Mike,
          Please tell me your `name` and `username` on OTP ….. and I’ll look check your `author` status.

          (Disqus log-in, is different to OTP log-in ………… I know, bit of a pain …. )

  • Neal

    Hello again Mr.Mystic,

    Some thoughts for nought:

    Encouraging ‘free riders’ to participate is an important perenial political issue which all organisations and societies face.  Success in turning browsers into presenters or commenters probably hinges in many cases on effecting a slight shift of self-image – as well as bringing out their inner optimist (coughs!).  In short, it is a hard-won cultural change and a problem of educational engagement v/v akrasia.  It is worthwhile to ask  whether the effort is worth the payback.

    More optimistically, I think a general area in which to start in pulling it all into an improved shape would be to more explicitly compliment the hard stuff with some carefully applied social scientific content along the lines of the article that Emma linked to a couple of days back ‘Mainstream Economics is a Cult’.  ie, Plot the historic patterns, forms, contradictions, and manipulations in economic and social development as a compliment to your very pithy sense of data content.  ie, give the whole thing a sense of direction without imposing methodological dictatorship (tricky).

    There was a post a while back (can’t put my finger on it right now) where you deliberately pulled the focus back into generality and apologised for it in advance(!).  I think those kind of ‘open’ observations and questions might in fact be be the most fruitful if you are looking to include more comments and contributions from the non-economic literati and those with complimentary skills to your own.  …will need some forebearance on the part of regulars of course …which in turn depends what your desired social and poilitcal outcomes from this site might be.

    Might be a opportune time to describe your ideal reader / contributor / online / offline community?… a la Fourier!

    Best,
    Neal

    • http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/ Mystic

       Every now and then, dumb it down; so the dumb can feel connected and sometimes make dumb comments~?
      Thanks Neal~!

      (I know …. I know)

      • Neal

        Sorry to be hair splitting, but if material is generalised (hate the phrase dumbing down), then the uninitiated don’t just feel connected, they very often ARE connected / engaged.  Same goes for when you throw out a (fully justified) protest about participation rates.  People engage with it because it strikes a chord of guilt / shame / indignation …whatever.

        On the other hand, its is also important to recognise that specialists are often quite dumb and useless at ordinary everyday tasks.  Something for everyone innit?  I see this dilemma going on on other blogs, and recognise that you are in effect trying to run a one-man TV channel.  There needs to be a development in the division of blog labour – to avoid unecessary burnout.  Hence my suggestion that you openly describe a better situation.  You may be surprised at the response if you suggested that certain people concentrate on certain subject areas, or that others come up with drafts for future projects. 

        The material is so big, hairy and urgently important that those of us with some time on our hands would be only too willing to help.   …if only we had an idea how.  You need an HR director!!

        • http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/ Mystic

          I could do cartoons at the week-end~!?

          • Neal

            Well at least you still have a sense of humour about it – some bloggists out there are at their wits end.  ‘Trying to round up cats’ is my favourite analogy.

            Most importantly – what change do you want to see for your efforts / what qualifies as success? 
            Unless you are a complete solipsist then (given the subject matter) this is a deeply ernest political question. 

            … on the other hand, some people make quite compelling cases for packing it all in and partying while watching the slow-mo train crash. 

            Warning: keep givin flippant answers and I’m going to be forced to contribute!

            • http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/ Mystic

               ”Just amusing myself, dear”  (Flay Otters)

              • Neal

                Yuk.

                Try this rom the FT, June 29th : 
                We think, therefore we are

                By Jules Evans

                Public forums for the discussion of ideas are flourishing everywhere…

                …an alternative to shouting into a bucket.

  • Scullygomez

    Oy! You quite guy in the corner sipping your beer and listening to our conversation night after night, then leave without a single word, drag your stool over here  and join our discussion. I’m the pub landlord, so,  if you don’t like the me rules, you can  P*SS OFF!!!! 
    Blimey Nick, I wasn’t expecting to get picked on like this.
    Roo

  • Mystic

    If you lazy fuckers would think before you enter comments, I wouldn’t be so angry

  • Mystic

    Pardon the typo. I meant to say you lazy “ dumb” fuckers. There are exactly 270 of you and you know who you are. You come on here and steal MY information that I bust my ass to collect from the interwebs and then you all go off to the pub or the mall or wherever you waste your time when I am doing research and drawing the joker charts and then you pretend you are right smart to your girlfriends to try to get some pussy. Well enough is enough as far as Mystic is concerned.

    • Jharrington

      Hi Nick, There is an easy solution to rid your sight of these information leaching, 
       lazy “ dumb” fuckers.  I can write you script, so that your site automatically excludes their IP address, next time they try to visit, if they fail to interact in a manner that  satisfies you or your inner circle of members. This would be by way of thumbs up percentages or other means. I right these scripts for a living, but can easily do one for you as a courtesy, so these people can be on their way, once and for all.
      J

    • Jharrington

      Just a thought, if I write you this script, then in effect I am excluding myself from the fountain of information your sight provides. You see, I am one to visit on my lunch break, check the tone of discussion in various topics then leave, without adding a single comment.
      “……………………….he forges the weapons by which he destroys himself”.  Kipling