Psycho killers~!

  By Mystic | June 17, 2012 - 00:24 |

I mean …………. someone has to stop these mad fuckin’ gobbermint types …… Spendin’ all our money on stuff and shit~!
We da people need more of da loot for …… well, granite worktops, jet-skis and groovy gear like dat~!

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Link to chart (but don’t bother, as you wouldn’t understand it).

Written by: Mystic on June 17, 2012.
Tagged . Bookmark the permalink.
  • windman3

    aye, t’was a little heavy.

    Nasty downturn on the red. If that mirrors the 1930 episode, then the US is in for a very shitty ride. But, of course, the Bernank is the world’s foremost expert on the Great Depression. He’ll find some more levers to push and pull, won’t he?

    • http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/ Mystic

       As the red comes down, the blue will go up (or the ride will be bloody (not just shitty)).

      Government will spend the money (central banks will try and help).

      • windman3

        That will be another ‘kick the can down the road’ waste, as the money will be squandered on supporting the current state apparatus, and not on a (to be defined) long term plan of re-allocating resources from non-productive and expensive areas to open up opportunities where productive and self-funding growth is possible.

        If, indeed, there are any such opportunities…..
        I wonder if there is a green shoot coming up here?

        http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9337490/Niall-Ferguson-If-the-young-knew-what-was-good-for-them-theyd-join-the-Tea-Party.html#disqus_thread 

        A green shoot of rebellion against the ‘profligate self-centred Boomers’, who have carefully set themselves up for an evening of ease and luxury.

        The question behind

        ““It is surprisingly easy to win the support of young voters for policies that would ultimately make matters even worse for them, like maintaining defined benefit pensions for public employees,” he says in an article ahead of the lecture.”

        is very easy to answer.

        The Yoof assume they are voting for their own retirement benefits too!!!!

        • http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/ Mystic

          Until they come up with the (to be defined) long-term-plan, of course they will  support the current state apparatus.

          • windman3

            Looks like the media are really running with this theme. I guess they are bored with Austerity.

            http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/pensions/9338039/Pension-gap-a-fathers-and-sons-tale.html
            Supposing the retired guy is on a 15,000 year pension.

            An average wage earner receives around 25,000 and pays 20% tax (figures out of my head).

            So it takes 3 average workers to support one retired public sector guy who retired at 49!

            No wonder he is smiling.

            And with 6,000,000 public sector employees busily supporting the efforts of the private sector (Or 6,000,000 parasites feeding off the profits of the private sector), every public sector employee is being carried on the backs of four private sector workers.

            No wonder those green shoots are struggling.

            • http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/ Mystic

              I have no problem with public sector workers.  They contracted to do a job, for a certain reward.
              The people who signed the other side also did so in good faith, as most humans are optimistic about the future.
              It may work out that the future won’t work out so rosy, but over-optimism is not a crime.

              • windman3

                Yep, I can accept that. That was the past.

                I cannot accept that the private sector has been forced to reduce its expectations, but the public sector expect to remain immune from the ‘black clouds’.

                • http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/ Mystic

                   If I was a civil servant, I would kick up a stink as well (it is only human nature).

                  • windman3

                    To be a little pedantic.

                    Civil servants and public sector workers are not synonymous.

  • CSArichardo

    The two lines probably have to cross. The red line can move down faster with a debt jubilee and the blue can move up faster with infrastructure spending.  But what are the second order impacts?

  • http://www.richnewbold.co.uk/ Richard

    Technical analysis is a funny thing – I’ve always considered it to be a bit like reading tea leaves (ie. total bollocks). If someone was to suggest the downturn on the red line and the uptick of the blue line mirrors that of the 1930′s, then surely they’d also have to suggest a long a sustained upturn of the red (60 years last time) at some point in the not too distant future once the lines have crossed. No?  

    • windman3

      I think it’s essentially relying on two principles.

      1. “nothing new under the sun”. Namely pattens in the past are doomed to repeat themselves.

      2. Black swans come in and screw it up

    • Blackstone100

      like this
      but then it wouldn’t be different this time

      • http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/ Mystic

         I note (with disbelief) `end of bear, start of recovery` on this chart.

        Like WTF man~!?   (etc.)

        • Blackstone100

          end of bear, start of recoveryas in the context of this dow chart

          doesn’t mean it is going to happen

    • http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/ Mystic

       Just because people are talking about a chart (graph) …… it does not at all mean that they are necessarily talking technical analysis (ie. total bollocks).  

      • http://www.richnewbold.co.uk/ Richard

        My point, admittedly badly made, was that only looking for patterns in the chart and using those patterns as the basis of future predictions is somewhat bollocks, because it also suggests a big uptick in private debt is coming our way and a return to happy times of much spending by all. I don’t think any of us are thinking that is going to happen, right?

    • Lyle

      I suspicion that other than the common denominators of energy and basic commodities, the world and it’s people numbers have changed so dramatically in the past 10, 20, 30, 40 years that most all the old theories and government practices are simply ill equipped to effectively deal with much of anything – at least in any civil manner.

  • Bigcollapso

    It isn’t realistic for government to cut the spending at this point. I have seen some calculations that the government would have to cut spending by 60% because of the so called “falling horizon” problem.
    As you have said, the markets may not reject the debt until a much larger number. Maybe double or triple of current debt. This will buy a couple of years if true.  But then what? That rejection will be a turning point in history.

    • http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/ Mystic

       Well, hopefully, lots of bright bunnies are running round for answers to that problem.
      It is a strange problem, this money problem; because it is not a lack of a resource (like oil or copper) …….. it is that the digits are in the wrong places.
      When the time comes, and mass poverty (or war) is threatened, they will probably find a way to put the digits in places that make everything not so terrible.

      • Bigcollapso

        I have been getting more involved with the process since 2004. First with meetings at my Senators, and Rep offices. Lately as an activist and elected delegate.
        I have seen and learned a lot. “Bright Bunnies” with solutions are no where to be found.

        • http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/ Mystic

          This shocks me not~!

    • windman3

      Hey BC, your posts are becoming more intelligible!

      But the “falling horizon problem” is not known to me. Hopefully you have not simply renamed “the exponential problem”……

      So come on, what is the falling horizon issue?

      • http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/ Mystic

         I look forward to the collapso reply as well (as I would have called it `the rising horizon problem`).

        • Bigcollapso

           Falling because, as cuts are made everything falls, revenue, spending targets, etc.

          • http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/ Mystic

            `Rising horizon problem` ………. as in, when flying along merrily and your engines cut out.

      • Bigcollapso

         Cutting government spending will lower the GDP and revenue. This creates a situation where cutting the spending will not fix the deficit.  “The horizon will fall away”

        • windman3

          Sentence 1. Yep.

          Sentence 2. Does not follow from sentence 1. The only way to fix the deficit is to cut spending. 

          Cutting spending will of course reduce tax income. I have no idea how much 1 GBP of government spending is returned as tax, but it is certainly far less than 100%. So a Quid cut from spending will certainly reduce the deficit.

          Sentence 3. If you stick with well known expressions we’ll have a better chance at clear understanding.

          Maybe “digging the hole deeper” or “making the mountain steeper”. “Falling horizon” is not in use anywhere I know and is a little too abstract to generate an appropriate image.

          • Bigcollapso

            Expressions such as this are often used to describe situations that seem simple, but that actually require higher order analysis. There is no first order analysis that can describe the relationship between cuts and deficit.

  • CSArichardo

    I think Keen said that it is ponzi finance that causes this acceleration in private debt.  The question is does a faster or slower deceleration assist best in the correction?  I think that because inflation is so low that the faster the better?

    • http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/ Mystic

       Anything `fast` would have to be a work of absolute genius.
      Failing finding these absolute geniuses ………… it will be slow, slow, slow, slow, slow.

  • Lyle

    Roubini’s newsletter – Dr. Doom still at it 1st. Class.http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/a-global-perfect-storm

    • http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/ Mystic

       Not as though it is unrealistic …… There just is not much `good news` to be found.

      Hello Lyle.

      • Lyle

        Hey hey Nick.

        I’ve always felt Roubini was one of the clearest and most reliable straight-shooters. I get his newsletter. I also have been getting John Mauldin’s, “The Big Picture” newsletter for years now. His latest has a killer review of the EU catastrophe running and likely future scenarios. Also includes a link to a NYT’s page of informative graphics.

        http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/06/14/business/global/understanding-the-european-crisis.html

        As I’ve mentioned in various ways and times, I don’t get into the minutae much, although I stay quite generally in tune with what’s going down in the world – and it sure as hell is ‘going down’.

        At the other extreme, so to speak, I observe what’s happening in our little town of about 35K. The local news station recently noted the town was growing economically evidenced by pointing out we had a new Dunkin Donuts shop and a new Cheddars resturaunt. Whoopee!  That’s near 28 lower than minimum wage jobs!

        They failed to mention business closings and the people now standing with cardboard signs with ‘Homeless – Need Help’ at most every large store exit, or the long lines for free meals at the Salvation Army and a few church feedings. Oh yes… the numerous tents along the river banks.

        This particular little town does in fact seem to be muddling along pretty well. As expected, although even more so, the ones being beaten down badly are the already poor, the uneducated young and old, and the elderly. There numbers are growing rapidly. ‘Haves’ and ‘have nots’ – with little between.
        Samo samo the world over it seems.

         

        • http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/ Mystic

          I should not say too much at the moment, because I am reading a book about the Great Depression …………. so I am heavily influenced

          But ……..
          All in all, I don’t like the look of it.
          If only someone would find some new Saudi type oil fields, I would have some faith that these money token things could be sorted out.  It is just that we have to take them (the money tokens) so seriously ………… and the more we do, the more very unserious they all look.

          As you say, samo …. samo~!

  • windman3

    Here’s AEP

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100017978/greek-agony-drags-on-as-asphyxiation-bloc-wins/

    “This is what Professor Vanis Varoufakis from Athens University has to say about the Troika policies (via Naked Capitalism):
    “Consider what they are telling the Greek people: They are saying that Greece, to remain in the Eurozone, must,
    (a) carry on borrowing from the EFSF at 4% (and thus adding to Greece’s public debt) in order to pay the ECB (which will be making a 20% profit from these payments, courtesy of the fact that it had previously bought Greece’s bonds at a 20% to 30% discount)
    (b) reduce public spending by 12 billion euros in order to be ‘allowed’ to borrow for the benefit of bolstering the ECB’s profits from these transactions involving bankrupt Greece.
    If the Devil wanted to guarantee that Greece is pushed out of the Eurozone, he and his evil handmaidens could not make up the above, satanic, scenario. Meanwhile, the same happens in Spain, where the government is forced to borrow money (at nearly 7%) it can hardly raise in order to shore up banks that are borrowing from the ECB (at 1%) to lend to the Spanish government (at 7%) so that the latter can… bail them out. Not even the sickest of minds could make this up!”

    • http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/ Mystic

      They have not yet fallen on a `plan` that they can call `the plan`.