What’s a dollar worth~?

Here is a rough transcription of the presentation for people who are hard of hearing. Apologies for the lack of grammar, I am working to improve the automated transcriptions -
need a haircut again well Tuesday year this Exhibit 6 US long-term real interest rate real interest rates inflation taken into account in whatever and you can see goes back to 1919 out I don’t know what to make of much of the first lots of charts and open up to you on the believe up to you_present them as they are so long-term nominal Treasury yields minus estimation friends relation expectations real interest rates 1980 there were high about 10% and have just come down top left bottom right ever since then 30 years they even see the trend from about 10 down to now at what it actually if that’s updated minus that gone from 10% down 2-1 or 2% right moving on and these are interesting for the sake of interest in and leave you to make something of them at 1974 over on the left there lack grey bark is when you needed are nearly one hour of work to buy a bushel of: yes it is a bit odd but you do see the shape of this other 1974 it was it its highest and it came down to this particular one and then save to 2002 because that’s what the others are going to be beaten sake come is from a very high down to a low and then starts taking off again from the start of this millennium and is going up again right this is hours of work needed to buy £100 of cotton these are just things that are used on the commodities markets in these amounts this is why they’re being used by the chart stop and you can see 1974 was the high thing again and it comes down to this is mostly even clearer 2002 way you could say goes along a bit and then goes up but basically from 2000 to the trend has been going up again this is hours of work needed to buy the S&P arm the stock market at the S&P 500 now this is different and I should have put it in another way round but we’ll just have to keep our minds alive here 1974 it’s started to try and get up but never really got going until the 1981 and then it took off all the way up to let’s say 2002 and over 2002 the trend has been down but this is the stock market this is not are real commodities this is the stock market okay going on the hours work needed by an ounce of gold and 1980 again with got this that the two numbers at the start 1974 1980 and this is a 1981 and then that comes all the way down to 2002 and then really rises up an awful lot of you now need 90 hours are of work our standard measuring board bureau of labour statistics whatever and hours world 90 hours worked by an ounce of gold but the the the arm shape is clear it’s either from a 7480 down to 2002 and up again or it was the other way round for the stock market is another one just for fun these is the hours of work needed by metric ton of copper if you wanted a metric ton of copper and using ceded the highest spike is that 74 one again but the whole trend is really coming down from 1966 all way down to 2002 and then it goes off up again and you have to look at now work nearly 4 500 hours to get our your metric ton of copper that you so much need when you only needed 100 hours of work to get you metric ton of copper in 2002 right at the whole CRB index is all of these commodities all lumped together in one index you can follow how things are doing our as a great big lumped together thing and we can see our famous shake 1974 comes all the way down to 2002 and the CRB index that basket of commodities and from 2002 has taken off again Get right now so we can presume this is got something to do with the dollar so I dug into old arm US dollar USD UST X charts and it’s hard to get the one that goes all the way back that is modern as well but this gives us the idea that the the dollar was are right up at 120 now up is relative to where it had come from but it was at 120 in 2002 and as we can see the value of the dollar against bottom basket of other currencies especially the Euro from 2002 to 2008 came down and I’m and this more than definitely gives us why arm everything is becoming so more expensive 2002 was the changing changeover year now this one pays the UST X are think number four is UST X but more up to date the last one ended with it down below 75 but the the great recession panic brought the safety trade back into the dollar and pushed it back from 75 through 78 where this chart starts on up to 88 at the height of the crisis when everyone was panicking in came into the dollar and then through 2000 1011 it’s come down to 74 again but it didn’t go down and it’s Ashley gone up slightly to 80 and this 80 number is the number that I’m saying is is a kind of limit that arm the fed Treasury government will not want the dollar to go higher than that because they’ll be into all this import export stuff that they want to do now and it exports which are taking priority so it said 80 are I’ve no idea if this they have any ideas for numbers 80 might be the ceiling am saying 82 would be an absolute ceiling and they won’t let go above that right I don’t have that been helpful or confusing but it shows us how the factor of how a currency is perceived as currencies are only perceived against other things UST X is against other currencies and the CRB index is a currency against a basket of commodities right getting out of that an out of America and into the world bottom 10 sovereign CBS ranked by spread end of March 2012 you can really save for this these are the countries most likely to default according to CBS spreads am Cyprus Portugal Ukraine Argentina Venezuelan Ireland Hungary he gypped Lebanon and that’s the important one at the bottom in number 10 is Spain Spain has come in its February ranking was 16th and it come up the charts to number 10 and it’s rising far too quickly for Saddam the nice sleep for the Euro mandarins are Spain it’s very dangerous to have Spain in their right or wrong the Euro sorting out things this is quite interesting will not mind the Hindley interesting that is vaguely interest with got the how much it costs to of the by money and that’s what what when you borrow money but money is a commodity and if you want it safer a mortgage you want to buy some money for a mortgage you have to agree to an interest rates the more the interest rate the more price you’re paying for your money in Greece at the top we have in dark blue last year and in grey this year and you can get a mortgage cheaper increase now you can get it mortgage cheaper in Germany now whether you will be able to in three months or not I would like to say because Germany are starting to turn the screws on anything that might cause inflation there putting up bank this that the others trying trying to manage tightening the money so it doesn’t spurt out into Germany Ireland you can get a cheaper mortgage and those of the three that are above the EU average This is vaguely interesting that down at the bottom let’s start with the positive ones that when you got read that means on the right it means that mortgages are more expensive the more expensive this year in France them all expensive this year in Spain more expensive imports will and Italy now this is quite interesting against the Spain you’re having a mortgage/housing crash and now mortgages are more expensive and same their not having a at our housing crash in Italy but the mortgages are more expensive in Italy and Spain but not increase just shows that the whole twisted things going on but obviously mortgages being more expensive in Spain will not help their housing crash nothing in Spain that happening will help their housing crash that kept it under the carpet because banks aren’t accepting the losses and they are recall calls loans so it’s just not easy to arm and your mortgage back in people just been waiting and trying to the live through it through it that Spain is really coming under a lot of pressure now and it is via the mortgage market via the banks that the thing will explode I got one more what got to more I think okay world oil are Iran has stopped now arm selling money and selling oil to Greece Greek Greek Greece can only get oil from Iran really because Iran was desperate to sell Greece was desperate to buy but nobody else would take greases credit except Iran and now not even Iran will give our oil to Greece so others all have to important for them and sell it to Greece may be the EU will have to sort that out for them and finish with this which is on modern monetary realism the site that people should be following arm because modern monetary realism is the new name from one month modern monetary theory but this this this particular one money like instruments part to and card Cardiff Garcia’s awesomeness arm it’s the financial Times article that I spent nearly half an hour will all what all wobbling about and this article is frighteningly hairlike my half-hour video it pulls out just about all the points that I pulled out arm but there are more points in their and you can just by reading it you can see that this fella Michael Sandow ski Simon Cowell ski knows what he’s talking about where I was struggling waffling quite a lot I am so if you were the slightest bit interested in what I was saying in the long time when Kisch video go to this one and get a bit more clear this concise information from somebody who really knows what the talking about Wednesday out