Money is no joke

Here is a rough transcription of the presentation for people who are hard of hearing. Apologies for the lack of grammar, I am working to improve the automated transcriptions -
hello on the day of Sater and right obviously this is the joker chart and people weren’t so happy yesterday wasn’t up to expectations and quite frankly it’s been doing too well from little while now has and it looks like it was just extrapolating straight up into the top right corner but it’s not going to get into the top right corner not at 36 months anyway will take a bit longer than that they did ease heading in the right direction right now number two is low-wage job growth this is similar sort of stuff are going back to 2008 but a bit more complicated so if we look at the blue line to start with this is the total change in private sector employment private sector employment total change of it so you can see through 2008 2009 specially are big and horrid turndown in 2009 and were a lot of jobs being lost 800,000 over a period of months but what we have in the fancy coloured arm bars are the low-wage jobs low-wage jobs leisure and hospitality healthcare and social assistance temporary jobs and jobs in the retail trade now you can see in that big downturn jobs where being lost on the low ruck within the low low-wage ANSI colours there but an awful lot more than 200,000 are in the low-wage were being lost that 600,000 in the high-paid jobs and you can see that the high-paid jobs really haven’t come back as we swap over to positive in 2010 most of the jobs still being created are created by those fancy little colours leathered leisure and hospitality healthcare social assistance temp and retail and that is a big story those jobs that went away in 2009 and particularly how the high-paid jobs have not come back and the jobs that are coming back are low wage jobs right next want to be earnings and income this is year-on-year percentage change so where you have the big down in 2009 it wasn’t hard to beat in 2010 and 11 where your own your changes were up in the two and 3:30 3 1/2% range piquancy the personal income the orange line has been coming down free and half as has the disposable personal income this is percentage increase it still increasing but increasing at a decreasing amount of the big one average hourly earnings the blue one has been coming down since the recession started in 2007 and is now negative big story that really because this is demand destruction because without our money in the pocket are you can have the demand be hung got the ability to lower demand anybody gives you anything for your demand you need the money to make through with the demands right this is just a couple of paragraphs are pulled out of arrive rather rather interesting article in the Washington post a poll by Gallup last year showed that for two thirds of Americans not having enough money for retirement topped seven other financial worries including medical bills mortgage payments and their children’s college tuition is out got be bad if it go to top arm medical bills or medical insurance worries worrying about having enough money for retirement is not a new phenomenal but the rise in 401(k) dating to the early 80s and has a bit of a history of that happening in the article quite interesting has steadily shifted more financial was built bonds ability onto the shoulders of merit many Americans who are let’s face it clueless it’s it a fair it’s a fair comment on why should they be fruitful is no reason they should be doesn’t have wed you get the information from to be clue full on what to do with a 401(k) number four our this is CBO and therefore casting going back to 2001 where they were having a bit of am optimistic mode though go through that optimistic phase they projected in January 2001 that the cumulative surplus by 2011 would be $6 trillion but actually what has happened has that has been accumulative deficit of $6 trillion a difference of $12 trillion so why nothing to do with legislation they says 30% back grey area just should happen is the green bit which is 60% of the great swing which is a $12 trillion swing business more more than the 6 trillion must be $12 trillion swing arm is put down to Bush and his administration is are legislation and a little blue written about bottom is what Obama is are are attributed contributed to the swing so let’s go through the bush stuff it’s those tax cuts which are a great big suede Swanage of this and they should be coming off at the end of this year early next year but will they ever I think the CBO are even pencilling in the main now is permanent because there been taxcutting for so long wars in Afghanistan and Iraq that was painful Medicare part D I would’ve thought that band would have been bigger bits only 300 billion of course that will go on and on and on and on into the future another spending at 2.3 trillion making our Bush administration responsible for 7 trillion of that 12 trillion swing and then Obama comes in with the recovery act which was the 800 billion are tax stimulus is about 250 billion and other spending and tax cuts for 400 billion so Obama so far in 41.4 but if the gets in again and I think that blue bar is going to increase rather dramatically the only goes to show that the CBO the experts aren’t very clever at forecasting but how can you when politicians are involved where they go we going to have a surplus we don’t have extra money you spend their it’s and spend they did so what do they spend it on generally most of the budget goes towards defence social security and major healthcare programs were onto number five now so these guys reckon that most the money goes on defence and International Security assistance are across the top equally in 20% Social Security and down arm but the right there which is split at the bottom programme areas remaining which is a fifth of the budget which is 20% as well so got defensive 20% social security 20% those the we’ll get to the bottom 20% are over on the left Safetynet programs 13 interest on the debt six Medicare Medicaid and chip at 21 so actually the Medicare Medicaid chip is bigger a 21% but if you read the article they reckon when you add in that runs pensions and health problems and healthcare it probably takes from one and makes actual defence the biggest section so that other area that is a 20% goes on benefits for federal retirees and veterans transportation infrastructure at 3% education to percent science and medical research to present nonsecurity international 1% and the rest 4% this is where your tax dollars are meant to be going if tax.dollars go to the sort of things and talking of tax dollars number six let’s go to state spending and we find that the bulk of state spending goes to education and healthcare going from the top left and round K-12 education 26% higher education 13% so you got 40% 40 40% to education there Medicaid 13 transportation corrections and five public assistance one and the rest of all those sort of things 37 most of the spending state wise goes to education using this is segue to get to the outside world unconvinced and you can tell by the colour of the chart the little red splodges and economists chart and then taking a bit of a poll and found the respondents to that all agreed that the free-market system is best and we get the total percentage total but think that the free market is best whatever in the name of all things squidgy a free market is let’s just say that they think free-market-ish things are better than real control thinks okay so the top greenie one if we started 2000 210 years ago the top greeny Turk what someone at 80% was the United States of America 80% thought the free-market was the way the goal but that has tickled its little way down to now where only 60% of Americans think that the free-market is the way to go they have been overtaken by Germany and China Britain pretty standard similar wrapping itself around 60% and France is going off the idea of free-market kazoo quite well into it at 40% to start with but now it’s only down to 30% in France that think that free-market things are a good idea right let’s finish with the United Kingdom and a very similar chart to where we started at the Joker chart but this is arm recessions are measured in output GDP and it goes back to 1930s and further so it’s last 80 or hundred years and the 12345 biggest longest recessions since 80 years ago so the great depression recession 1930 1934 is in there in dark red spotty red is set 1973 to 76 spotty black 1979 to 1983 yes things were a bit shifty round 73 to 83 and the was recession in 90 to 93 which was the shortest one of these bad ones but the one that is staying out there and staying out there the longest and strongest is the one that started in 2008 and is still continuing at apparently -4% from the peak of GDP and I can’t see that getting up to the back to where we started line for a good long while yet these great recession things that are still going for 45 years now are really quite an important thing in our little history Jeremiah I got some really heavy stuff tomorrow is really heavy stuff it’s really interesting stuff and I hope you’re looking forward to it by

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  • NascentMind

    Destruction of middle class jobs will result in massive social rippling affects
    That will destabilise western democraseys. To evidence to this I point to George Gallows 
    election victory in Bradford (uk) 

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2122523/George-Galloway-Secures-shock-victory-Bradford-West-election.html 

    Low paid Jobs will doom many a Small Medium Business thats why banks are not lending to these?

    Social breakdown is and will be economic breakdown.

    • http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/ Mystic

       Whenever I hear these demonstrator types….they always seem to chant –
      “Blah diddy blah……..When do we want it~!?…….Now~!”

      What would you imagine the `social breakdown` “Blah diddy blah” will be~?

      • NascentMind

        Social justice for all! eduction for all! social aspiration for all! when do we want it 1848. ( backdated with interest )

        • http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/ Mystic

           No.  Sorry.  Too wishy-washy.
          It’ll be Jobs, Jobs, Jobs……………We demand to be wage slaves.  When do we want to be wage slaves~?
          Now~!

          • Paul

            Jobs are the key.  It’s time for a “FDR type” make-work project.  Upgrading the civil infrastructure is not a waste of money.  Without some decent-paying job creation, all the other indicators are done; housing, spending, loan demand, etc.  A prolonged, 20 year recession will be inevitable.

            • http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/ Mystic

               Yes, most everything points that way.
              Would it `work`~?
              Who knows, but everything else looks like a dead end~!

              • Paul

                “Who knows?” is right, but I think a govt spending program that upgrades infrastructure and puts people back to work is about the best plan that They could adopt right now.  Since we now have essentially a State controlled economy, we might as well enact our own version of China’s Five Year Plan model.
                We can re-evalute after 5 years to see whather it was a go.  Technically speaking, we are already in year 4 of our first Five Year Plan, no~?    

                • http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/ Mystic

                   Yes, in year 4 of Five Year No Plan~!

                  • Paul

                    Good point!

  • NascentMind

    By the way I was surfing the whorehouse youtube and found Steve keens personal site
    He’s working on a new computer model for the new economic dynamics with social classes and such built in 
    it’s big project that has to be done in stages. Its called Minsky Project 

    • http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/ Mystic

       Yep.  Soros is funding it via INET.

      • NascentMind

        Well~ when you get close to check out time,(Soros) you have to Hedge your bets~! 

  • Paul

    Did you see this article updating the old predictions on the Limits of Growth? Pretty interesting.  The old MIT numbers were pretty much spot on.  Not a nice future for most of humanity. 

    http://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/Looking-Back-on-the-Limits-of-Growth.html#

    http://www.clubofrome.at/about/limitstogrowth.pdf

    Here’s another Australian rabble-rouser discussing the numbers.  I hope he and Keen are pen-pals.

    http://www.themonthly.com.au/limits-growth-2009-graham-turner-1580

  • Paul

    Some chart porn

    • http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/ Mystic

       There is an update of the book recently out I think.
      I am putting in an Amazon order…..will look for it.
      Found it.  Shit……why is the hardcover four times more than the paperback~!?

      • Paul

        I always have my local library order the expensive books.  If I feel it is worth the purchase, I’ll wait awhile until the price drops.  The paperback version should be just fine.  You can buy the hardcover version later for your library, and use the paperback version as a working book for note-taking and scribbling.

      • Paul

        Here is a 28 page Synopsis to get you started.

        http://www.clubofrome.at/about/limitstogrowth.pdf

        • http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/ Mystic

           Thanks
          (Having trouble with Adobe………will have to sort it out)

  • Jetser

    Mystic,

    The Average Hourly Earnings on the chart in 2b has its index on the RHS, so it’s currently about 1.5% positive. You were looking at the wrong axis when you saw it as being negative.