No one knows

Here is a rough transcription of the presentation for people who are hard of hearing. Apologies for the lack of grammar, I am working to improve the automated transcriptions -
federal wardens do a coherently opening chart all our cut the information off is that stimulus for it or follow the link the different countries along the bottom and percentages or a number that I’ll explain obviously another axis of Italy what it means is that about 90 of the money but the Italian government spends it gets 90% of that money into it six checker in taxes spends 100% yet 90% back in in taxes now working backwards through the bad people Portugal Spain Greece are up in the middle 85 they get 85% of their extra expenditure the national expenditure into the national exchequer UK Japan and Ireland slightly lower around 80% of the amount that the government spend is brought in in taxes of various taxes and duties etc nor sort of stuff Soho and 41 here it’s a little fellow on the end that end the United States of America government spends $100 but only get in to the Treasury $65 for that all the rest of these basketcase European countries and Japan at least get into their exchequer near 80% of what they spend that the United States can only manage 65% now I think they should be opening hoping that the United States is very special indeed all that that Beaumont number two Washington Post running an article on modern monetary theory and the might be and at and at and out for them using modern monetary theory and it’s actually a very good arm article to read and because I’m in it’s just in the popular-ish Washington post but it’s not totally unfair to MMT but obviously got to give it Maryanne because it doesn’t really understand it probably but it it tries at least both sides the people that don’t like the idea of MMT in the people at the right the MMT would be satisfied with the presentation of this article probably it’s quite balanced in the weights put on out starting with Jamie Galbraith who the bad place to start because anybody who comes across that loudmouth Ginger nerd is done instantly put off is quite revolting this father was all right but the science starting off with Jamie Galbraith the whole article is well worth reading and quite frankly United States either needs something miraculous like MMT or it needs some other miracle because on normal basic accounting United States of America is fact right that there were speakers cultivated risk Department of Transport would that be the DMT vehicle miles driven in the United States increased 1.3% in December United States is getting back on the road so cultivated risk what we get is a chart 3 be and there’s the chart you can see it at the end that 1.3% increase see at the end the under by the jargons back 1971 the gives are still but the is the most Italy would lead twiddly little turn up at the end that’s the in the did the mining the driving miles increasing by 1.3% you can see basically the shape of it it is a plateau or turning downwards yeah yeah okay life on the plateau is blog posting by early warning naturally the link will be in the right place will number for the New York Times had a piece over the weekend that looked at the political risks to the Obama administration due to rising gas prices at the pump gas prices so this presumably is am indented so it’s taken from the New York Times rising Elohim prices trumpeted in the foot tall numbers on street corners across the country are causing concern among advisers to Pres Obama that a budding sense of economic optimism could be undermined just as he heads into the general election White House officials are preparing for Republicans to use consumer or mixed about the cost of oil and gas to condemn his energy programs and buttress their arguments that is economic policies are not working in a closed-door meeting last week Speaker John a owner instructed fellow Republicans to embrace the gas pump anger they find among their constituents when they return to their districts from the Presidents Day recess you got to explode what you get this is politics admit but I’m just in the throw in an unbeatable naughty one I normally try keep office but the rules we know who the influential people want to win this election and it is not present by Iraq awhile and there is a reasonable chance let’s say that they were all tried to manipulate oil prices to go up for the next six months also threepence listing is at least a possibility I think I do because we know what politicians alike speaking the politicians number five Carl Denning are who is normally a bit of a row Ron Paul fan but he’s drag this out because although we might like Ron Paul he does not like naughtiness are even see a car this from the middle of one of his posts with James’s recollection and new documents obtained by Roll Call the following financial Roll Call are may sound of man are really no there there are decent outfit are not just while blogger anything suggests that the RON Paul was aware that he was often being in reimbursed twice for individual flights in all Roll Call found 26 flights in which several layers of documentation showed double payments credit card statements that detail the ticket purchases a payment to Paul from his taxpayer funded house account for reimbursement overflight and Federal election commission records or copies of checks that verify a second payment from the second group for the same flights inadvertent a says Carl well let’s see we have 26 documented cases and 31 more that look suspicious for example on January 18, 2005 peril purchased a continental airlines ticket from Washington DC to Montrose Colorado via Denver for 1000 something bucks the liberty committee paid for the ticket and one other flight with a February 21 cheque signed by LeBlanc but taxpayers also played for the 1000 and some dollars for the same flight on February 11 the whole United Kingdom is just been through all this I am finding that government officials elected members of parliament had been fiddling their expenses and some of them were actually sent to jail but we doubt that will happen in the United States of America rough leave America behind the go to Australia how I asked Ryanair another required a few people are listening watch from Australia because I can see it in the reports so how I claims about higher funding costs by Australia’s big four have met with suspicion scepticism 10 thinks from an unlikely source a large French bank Societe Generale so it looks like Australian banks and put their charges up and have come up with some excuse and Soc gen have said a lot will you you what to Tokyo-based Soc gen Asia-Pacific head of interest rate strategy, this jewel The Euro said it was almost mathematically embossed Hebrew is at total funding costs for Australian banks were rising as the sector argued this month using it as a motive to lift mortgage rate independently of the reserve bank to claims that the recent increase in mortgage rates is due to higher funding costs is very dubious he said in a research note some mortgage aches seem aimed at putting things that I keep fit map genes are my think he’s probably right that had a good front for long time in Australia and will try to keep clean onto that for as long as Blatty possible just over there in the East is Japan and this is taken from the Economist how the mighty have fallen market This market capitalisation of the major tech firms the market cap of any C Sharp Panasonic Fujitsu and sunny Sony Sony.net 2000 obviously end of the tech boom they were rocking and rolling up their 200 and there have trumpeted the duty be there but there down at the moment and have been lately nearer 50 they’re having their own little ongoing long-term.com crash.com crash and you’d imagine that sunny and Japan need companies like Sony sharp NEC Panasonic and feet Fujitsu to be actually pumping as opposed to dumping right will move out of this is Europe and eights are tweaked by Gareth Gore who is worth following he comes up with some really sharp stuff it’s hard to follow this as special if you follow the the grass the red pointy bits I don’t understand the columns at all but I do understand the yellow arm up 20 whatever is now what we have a series European lenders depositing more cash at central banks around the world right the banks have got more cash via either sales or Al Trop putting them assets to the central bank and and getting cash cost them 1% but it back at the central bank and they get .25% at the central banks are they’ll losing .75% on that transaction when they leave the money at the central bank and similar things at other central banks why they doing it are just go through the numbers and then I’ll tell you why I think they’re doing it Saint Lucia bank of got them 87% more cash obviously with the ECB Barclays will be with the bank of England Santander there will be with the arm ECB credit squeeze will be with the Swiss National bank BNP will be with the ECB Soc gen ECB UBS will be Swiss National bank and BB VA which is Spanish bank obviously be with the ECB or whatnots especially Soc gen that term varies to division was having a go at Australia because they wrongly came under pressure a few months ago when people looked into their books so they’ve got lots of cash on hand at the central bank that they have probably got from Al Trop that there are actually losing money on so what they need for Gareth Gore says some nice numbercrunching on banks hoarding cash on concerns things may get worse what things now is the question between me new really to you because I am still stuck on this they have got reserves on deposit with the central bank now I think I have decided and nobody is come at me I don’t know but I don’t think they will ever use that cash to say give a mortgage or to lend it to accompany because what’s the point they do use fresh air money for that so they will not be using that reserve that those reserves at the central bank for making mortgage loans or business loans when Gareth says things may get worse what they is the banks funded not by equity by borrowing because it’s cheaper that way and the shorter term the borrowing the cheaper it is there’s an awful lot of that borrowing that is gone have to be paid back this year they getting the cash to pay that borrowing back that’s what I think money is full so we know those reserves can be used now to pay back borrowings from other banks now the question is and again it goes with the Question of can you can use or would it use that money to make mortgage loans when a bank makes alone to and know the bank does use reserves to do that or does it use fresh air money to do that now I’ve been keeping my ears and eyes open for four years to find out the answer and I can’t I don’t know I still don’t know the answer what I do know I think I know is when that money is to be paid back it will be paid back by transferring the reserves that one bank has the central bank to the bank it has that the as a similar bank into central bank and those reserves will be swapped over if it’s Soc gen to BMP the central bank will all just organise the arm transfer of funds central bank so that the money will pay back the loan but what money was loaned out was it reserves in the first place that was loaned out or was it fresh air money anybody really knows all written knows where I can definitely find that out I will be much appreciated so finish that heavy dude stuff and go to the UK and finish with Tesco’s and this funny thing that I picked out that Tesco’s were not employing were ruined below offering jobs that ridiculous basically government was going to pay ridiculously cheap so they have done a news release Tesco offers choice to work on Hesperian is and has reacted to all that stuff apparently is it it wasn’t just me that saw it and reacted to it for some reason it was one of these meme things the got going and that Tesco have reacted to it and now I at Tesco to day and announce that from now on any young person accepted for work experience will be offered a choice etc etc and it goes to show we never know what meme is going to take off in the the culture in just over a day and what effect it could have all we can say is that it’s always worth trying because it might spark something is no point ever just sitting there saying my little something won’t do anything now in this modern mix media that is bouncing around the globe it’s always worth giving it a go and video are comment whatever it might be if all makes for effect leave you with this affect by

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  • Bigcollapso

    We are fooked. But first we can drive the rest of the world into collapse by inflating the reserve currency.

  • NascentMind

    I’v been asking myself  for a while, why so many reserves, and all I could come up with was.
    1) Are they in the crap, and know it, so they are preparing for a run.
    2) Does holding reserves have an inflationary effect ?

    • http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/ Mystic

      1)  Euro banks are in the crap, but reserves are not preparing for a run.
      2) No, holding lots of reserves is not inflationary.

  • http://abellia.myopenid.com/ Andrew

    MMT is poorly named.  It’s not a theory.  It’s a statement of how things work.  It explains why the US is not fooked for not taking in enough revenue.

    Remember that money is just a proxy for control of real resources.  It doesn’t matter how much you have, just how it is distributed.  Large changes in a short time are also difficult to deal with as the value one attributes to money doesn’t always change as quickly as the supply of money (or the supply of resources).

    P.S. – Disappointed on your characterization of Galbraith.  He seems quite sensible to me.

    • http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/ Mystic
      • http://abellia.myopenid.com/ Andrew

        I don’t see anything much in those items about Galbraith.  What does he say that makes him sound like a madman?

        I will say that I think that the whole MMT idea about govt. deficits being explicitly good and surpluses being bad doesn’t really stand up to scrutiny.  But, the important notion that they bring is that government spending (regardless of the current surplus/deficit) puts money into the economy and taxation takes it out.  It is the way that a government with it’s own currency can control the money supply.  But controlling the money supply isn’t enough.  In order for things to work (at least work in a way that I think we should strive for), the government needs to control the distribution of the money supply.  All the MMT seems to say about that is a promise for an $8/hr job for everyone.  I can’t imagine that’s good enough to really create some reasonable semblance of equality and opportunity.

        • http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/ Mystic

          Yes, the amount of bank lending should be much more widely covered by MMTers.

      • Slough of Despond

        Galbraith is a serious fucking creep, in looks and thoughts  Who would trust a 60 year old man who still has a combover harido?  I can understand how you might be insecure about going bald at 30 y.o.; but, at 60 y.o.?!  Grow up, you old, academic masturbator!  Nobody in the real world (non-academic sycophants) gives a fuck what you look like!
        The other prime candiate for creepy combover freak is Donald Trump.  Nice company, huh?
        I would love to see these two worms swinging a hammer or working a shovel in the hot sun all day.  What a fucking sight!  After 2 hours, I would say to both of them, “You’re fired!”
        For the record, I am bald and proud of it.  The more hair I lose, the more head I get!

    • NascentMind

      Issued control? is that not an economic slave voucher system? 

    • Bigcollapso

      Andrew, you understand the basics. But the USA cannot uptake enough resources to keep itself from collapsing and it is covering for that with (bad) debt generation. Once the jig is up on the bad debt, it’s bye bye baby.

      • Lyle

        How can there be a ‘jig’ in the first place? U.S. debt has been bandied about near 24/7 for the last 30 years. Seems anyone of any consequence at all – and millions more that aren’t – are and have been quite aware of the U.S. debt.

  • CSArichardo

    Nick, you appear to be enjoying yourself more than normal :)  Nice conspiracy theory on gas prices !

    Remember (I think) most of economics is based upon change management.  Reduce capital gains tax, increase depreciation rates on equipment, increase taxes, increase borrowed spending at near zero, etc it all creates a change which gives a boost to growth, by changing the behavior of participants. 

    So what is the change that is driving us today ?

  • Abc

    European spending better funded than USA Mystic? Are you allowed to say that. Ron Paul a crook, that came from nowhere but you’ve got to pay the rent I suppose.
    X

  • snedmeister1

    Evenin’ Nick….

    Regarding link 8….
    I have two thoughts, but they are just that, thoughts..!!!

    Banks depositing more reserves expecting things to get worse, could be because, if things get worse
    asset prices would fall, smashing that fragile balance sheet and thus the banks would rather have the cash and let the CB hold the assets…( and the risk )???

    Regarding the next bit about banks lending reserves to other banks, then yes, I would say they lend the actual reserves, and not lend fresh air money….

    I think this because, CB’s use the amount of reserves in the system to control the overnight rates….

    This is because banks with excess reserves, want to lend them out to other banks….
    ( You know the rest already )… :)

    Thus, the only way the interest rate could be controlled by the amount of excess reserves in the system, is
    if the banks actually lend the reserves…!!!??

    Interested to know your thoughts…
    I am currently visiting Mt Snowdon, and the internet is shite to say the least, so if it takes time for me to
    reply, please keep that thought in mind…!!!

    Sned.

    • http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/ Mystic

       No, the bank still holds the risk.  If the asset prices fall, the ECB demands more assets.
      I’m good with the banks lending their reserves to each other  (or buying bonds, equities etc…..or a balance of all).

      Normal people do not `visit` Mt. Snowdon……………in February.
      I’m not sure sensible people `visit` Mt. Snowdon……….ever~!?

      • snedmeister1

        I don’t remember a time, where I would ever be classed as normal..!! :)

        Are the LTRO’s compulsory…???
        Otherwise, I can’t see why a bank would want to swap either, when it loses on the deal…???

        Not only do they lose as you described, but when the banks complete the swaps with the CB, then
        they also lose on the percentage they get when lending to other banks ( as the overnight rate falls
        with increase in excess reserves )…!!??

        We must be missing something..?????

        • http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/ Mystic

           Banks have to apply for the LTRO (optional).

          They have funded their asset purchases (sure-fire-winners) by borrowing from other banks.  Those days are over and it is time to pay back the banks.  That is what they will do with the reserves.  They are just holding them at the ECB till pay-back-time.

          • snedmeister1

            Gotcha…:)

            So, not only are the banks too nervous to lend money to Joe public, but they are also nervous enough
            to stock up on cash for when payback day arrives…??
            ( and are willing to accept losses on the transaction, to ensure they have the cash stock )….??

            • http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/ Mystic

              Yes to all that.