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This stepwise downsizing of the economy, punctuated by economic collapses has been predicted by some of the peak oilers for many years. Campbell being one of them. CERA has produced reports that show this as well. Although this behavior may seem strange to some it is called and underdamped feedback loop in engineering and is very common.
CERA~!?!#%@%? The CERA underpant didblack poop is very common~!
Evening Nick, and OTP…
Link one, not sure how accurate or mainstream it is, but it was actually quite a good little gem slipped in there tonight…
It has some good graphs, showing how much the BoE is stepping into the markets with QE, and also how much intervention is forecast, and also has a little bit about Mr Osbourne’s future spending plans…
This kind of makes me think that although ( bearing in mind this is only one article among many on this subject ), he seems out of his depth, if he were to stretch his toe a little deeper and lean on Merve a bit longer, he may be able to keep his head above the water..!!??
Nice find Nick….
Merv said over and over again yesterday that the BoE can only do so much; but the government must play its part. Here I am not sure what Merv wants Cameroon to do…….and I also doubt Merv’s advice would be the best to follow. The BoE have done their bit well enough, to stop a banking disaster; but I am guessing that Merv knows that the whole banking system (including the BoE) is out in the wilderness somewhere and desperately wants to get back to the civilization of `how things were`. He sees that he cannot get back there on his own, so thinks that the government has to do something to get them back………..Trouble is, I think they are both equally lost………and there is a chance that there is no way back to `there` from `here`.
Has the UK done any or tried any type of austerity yet? I don’t think that I have read of any real hits to the ordinary person, i.e. lower standard wage, as was done in Greece. If it had, the Brits would have protested, albeit politely, but with a grumbly nature.
UK is like the US in spending 8%(ish) deficit to GDP. When you are spending with large deficits, do we say it is austerity to come from 10 to 8~? (like US and UK have). There have been cuts, like in US; but spending wise, only reductions in the `growth` of deficits. The actual debt amount is stacking up joyfully~!
What do you imagine Merve’s advice may be…??? ( I assume you feel he would advise the Gov’t to force lending to small business ..??… Just clarifying )
On the UK economy I don’t think Merv would know what to say…..something like, `spend as much as possible without scaring the horses`. Merv is after-all the CB man. He would want house-prices supported, so as to support the bank’s assets. Yes, somehow, get people coming into our money shops (banks) and buying our produce (money). *Although, it is interesting to note here that it is the bank that does the buying. (would you like to tell me why that is so~?)
Always interested in what you have to say….!!!
The plan was, that you were to tell me; but that is kinda busted now. Man walks into bank, borrows 10,000 money. Bank books show – 10,000 money repayment contract on asset side and 10,000 checking account on liability side. Man spends money on diamond ring for girl. Bank books show – 10,000 money repayment contract on asset side…… and that is all.
—The bank has bought a 10,000 money repayment contract—That is what banks do~!
Plans never work out as expected…:)
Ok, I see exactly what you mean here, and it seems perfectly clear, ( it helps the bank doesn’t actually spend it’s own money when buying this contract, doesn’t it…?? )….:)
Balance sheets are one of those things that twist my mind sometimes, and I find myself avoiding thinking in balance sheet terms sub-consciously, I think… ( It reminds me of the MMT day’s, where you had to re-itterate certain points over and over )…
Sometimes they make sense immediately, sometimes not, I think it is because it depends on whether you are viewing from the bank perspective, or consumer perspective ( ie man’s asset is the banks liability )…??
On the face of it, they are dead simple, but I should always remind myself, who’s perspective are we looking from… It is the classic error I always make….
Thanks for your input, appreciated as always..:)
The bank is happy, the girl is very happy, the diamond seller is happy, the government is happy (taxes from the transaction). The man is happy as long as he keeps his job. If he gets laid-off and can’t make the payments on the loan, then things go terrible awry. The man is unhappy now; he has no income and gets a ding on his credit rating so that he can’t obtain future loans. The bank is unhappy and has to show a loss. The diamond seller is unhappy because the bank has just passed a new mandate that there will be no more loans given for diamond ring purchases. The government is unhappy because now it has to bail-out the bank, has to pay for the man and the diamond seller who are now on the dole and no longer paying taxes. So, the govt now runs a deficit and gets a whack to its credit rating and has to pay higher interest on the bonds it sells to frugal Chinese investors, who think diamond rings are an incredible waste of hard-earned savings. The girl is so unhappy that her ring is being repossessed, that she will no longer have sex with the man, so there will no future consumers/debtors born to create future growth in the economy. The most unsettling aspect is the lack of future babies, which the West desperately needs to keep the Ponzi scheme running.
Yer…….sumfin like dat~!
Re. graph 1 – fat bloody chance those lines will start curving down…
Nick….you’re so wrong on the slimming down regarding diesel sales and miles driven. Why, you ask? It’s because of Obama, and his green initiative. We are all driving around in electric cars and electric trucks…Why, they’re made right here in N. Indiana. Obama himself was here before he was elected, and told us that N Indiana was the future…
On a sad and slightly related note, the electric motor company started in N. Indiana went bust, and Think USA in N. Indiana sucks, my daughter wrecked the Prius when she hit a N. Indiana pothole… So, N. Indiana basically sucks. Oh and my cell phone took a crap too.
Cheer up Toddalot. N.Indiana is in the USA and the USA is God’s chosen country…..so must be great at all times~!?
Damn straight! Who needs jobs when we have Jesus!
The students ain’t about ready to help.
A trillion in debt to somebody or other (am I beginning to detest this bloody word; debt) they are not going to be striding proudly onto the lower rung of the housing ladder; living the Dream and boosting the Golden Goose higher and higher, as it drops those precious gold eggs down onto the economy.
How about a new education finance model weighted by usefulness to the economy?
A few examples
Engineers – free Medical profession – free Sciences – free
Economics – 200% loading
Political history – 500% loading History of Art – 500% loading
Political History of the Labour Party 1,000,000% loading, that would have kept Brown out.
And so on.
My thoughts exactly. I tell the young Americans that I know, the only reason to go to university now is for engineering, nursing, hard sciences or accounting. If they can’t handle those degrees, then go to a trade school to become an electrician, auto mechanic, plumber, carpenter, IT admin, etc. Do we really expect these kids to be able to save for a 20% down payment for a middle class house someday? They can’t even make their student loan payments. Some are even going back to university now to get a more practical degree. So, even more debt! Meanwhile, their parents and grandparents are downsizing due to the empty nest syndrome. They are putting their McMansions up for sale and moving into smaller homes or condos. Who do they suppose is going to by their old houses? This is another reason why housing will be down for many years to come. I like the idea of free university tuition for engineers and nurses. But, what are we going to do for the other 99% of the young people?