Jobs will always need doing…

Here is a rough transcription of the presentation for people who are hard of hearing. Apologies for the lack of grammar, I am working to improve the automated transcriptions –
hello Friday from me this opening series is probably RISS document bank of International settlements but it’s all in pictures so it’s fine to be looking at don’t take any known notice of what their graft number is follow mine mine should be correct what the writer here is trying to put across and it’s a very effective way of showing what has happened as the macro picture for what happened with the great economy world economy thing okay normal circumstances we have banks there lending to households and is a certain amount of leveraged on both sides are how obviously and households and firms is leveraged because that’s intrinsic in borrowing and banks are borrowing arm to keep everything bouncing along an open getting to any arm technical stuff on here so we going to get into the green arrow bottom right their source of strength and a red arrow which is source of weakness at 10 to get through so I’ll go at it when we have a bust in corporate and or household lending this becomes a source of weakness red arrows pointing in towards banks because the is either a corporate or household bust busting corporate or household lending leads to a credit crunch we’ve been through this only down with big we’ve been through all of this but this just sums it up in Kendal pictures so we have both ways source of weakness going down so what happens is with a busting corporate or household all the lending leading leads to government recapitalisation of banks were in 2008 now for instance in the Western world so the sovereign comes in and helps the banks because they’re having trouble with either household or corporate lending then we get banks become a source of weakness towards the sovereign the red arrow going out there because many times the balance sheets of banks are even bigger than what we could call the balance sheet of the sovereign so it weighs heavily upon the sovereign then we get weakness because the sovereign comes under pressure because of its lending toward banks which gives us a double edged source of weakness this weakness in the bank and the sovereign so next we get sovereign and banks as two-way source of weakness leads to a credit crunch and more of a credit crunch more where we are now and this goes out to a lack of lending going out to the real world the corporate and household sectors that were already in trouble and we get the last one where the sovereign is not strong enough to give enough confidence to the banking system that they will go and do lending to the real world so what has to happen is the multi-sovereign which should be the IMF or the FSF OPSM in Europe coming in and backing up the sovereign now I just quickly add the end of this that this I think in 10 little diagrams sums up quite prettily where we find ourselves in the world the UK in the US have only gone to the sovereign being in trouble and the both sovereigns are still to a certain extent in trouble because the banks aren’t sorted out and there is still a credit crunch there is lack of lending toward the household and corporate sectors but mainly because the household and corporate sectors to a greater extent don’t want to borrow into a crap economy and over in Europe we got the multi-sovereign is coming and we have to ask ourselves if there’s a failure in the multi-sovereign what would graft number I think on mine were up to 10 I’ll be right says nine and what would graft number ten-day multi-multi-multi-sovereign all the central banks at have to get together in invent some other way of coming in and backing everything up but the this the the thing is it is backing up are the United States and the UK are not solved by any stretch of the imagination and Europe hasn’t been solved by the multi-sovereign coming in are in different areas there so the question is this is still ongoing and what happens next there is still a lot of pressure in this system but it is shown as how adaptable and wonderful emigrate away the central banking system is with the IMF and inventions that dead people have put in place have really saved our bacon but is it going to be enough if this continues right time to move on to the financial times and Gavyn Davies who is an ex-Goldman Sachs chap who now works for our forget the name of his outfit are but regularly blogs in the financial times for the financial times and he’s jumped on the American incredible shrinks shrinking labour force so that he’s been able to set his team on working out quite what going on and we can see in that diagram in that Graaf: grafts long-term growth rate 1.2 per and so that’s and that back to 1992 but as I showed on my chart to goes back to 1948 and probably goes back to 1848 but her top right of that Graaf recent growth is zero so from hundred years of exponential growth is it tight and arm it stopped the some reason and that’s what we were looking into an at what he’s that looked into one of the great constants in the world economy for the past few decades model is more than a few decades but costs are past few decades has been that the consistently strong growth in the US labourforce yet okay because he’s including from the 60s are belied he’s coming in and doing the work as well so your last few decades this is given American economic performance demographic Headstart compared with other developed countries not only has it been the main factor in insular in that US GDP growth has remained well above that in Europe it is also injected flexibility and dynamism into the US economy but all of that is now at risk the US labourforce suddenly stopped growing in 2008 and has been falling slightly ever since okay good on them to pick this up right is obviously follow the link to well worth while reading article am but I pulled this one out weeks I can’t do all of it because the financial times very very picky on copyright it is clear that the stagnation of the labourforce in the latest cycle represents a very different pattern from that seen previously what the consequences of this he’s actually put it down to ladies and girls falling out of the labourforce and staying at home doing other things playing tennis maybe the first is that the measured rate of unemployment has fallen to levels which are far lower than would otherwise have occurred in the past three years about 4.8 million people have disappeared from the labourforce instead of becoming unemployed and this is allowed the unemployment rate to drop from the peak of 10% in October 2009 down to 8.5% now if these people had stayed in the labourforce instead of drifting away from it the unemployment rate would now be about 11.3% and the whole debate on the US economic policy would look very different and surely it would governmentally and what he goes on to talk about at the central bank level what is the fed thinking about the unemployment rate it has a dual mandate does it think the unemployment rate is 8.5 does it think it’s 11.3 and surely the would be a great amount of policy differential depending how they look at it the last two paragraphs of the article or blog posting and if they do not act quickly enough to restore job opportunities to these missing workers this is particularly the fed but obviously the government here as well then this to percent of potential GDP might be completely lost her he’s mentioned in the posting here that this drop in labour and labour productivity probability possibility the backpack that they this 4.8 million have dropped out is probably costing GDP headline about 2% okay if they do not act quickly enough to restore job opportunities to these missing workers this to percent of potential GDP might be completely lost there would be a rising risk that the absentee workers would become too old to disenchanted ever to return to active participation in the labour market this is what happened in Europe after the recession in the early 1980s it most certainly did when as cyclical rise in unemployment became permanently baked into the system for the next two decades it did in Europe as UK to a certain extent got a bit of a dip down in the unemployment unemployment here in France that say has only recently gone down under 10% it’s just accepted in Europe the your unemployment level is 10% this is what happened in Europe after the recession of the early 1980s when as cyclical rise in unemployment became permanently baked into the system for the next two decades up to you economists call this is derris this which is fantastic name but I am no idea what it really meant to be saying but it’s a name hysterics this and Americans are usually quite disdains full disdainful of the European economic model because with so much unemployment this terraces is one feature of the European labour market which they could or should try hard not to imitate and he saying really the fed and the government should be thinking that there is 11.3% unemployment in the United States not dropping down to 8.5 look how good we doing you only get into trouble if you think you’ve got a .5 and dropping what you have is a good solid 11+ right over CMIS capital he now fronts are Gavyn Davies and this is actually a CMIS capital chart that I put the yellow line through US employment non-farm payrolls going back to 1994 and I put the yellow line in because I think it’s about accepted that the US Hass to employee 150,000 new people per month to keep up with the population rise the population rise hasn’t apparently over the last year been quite as big as it use usually is but that hundred and 50,000 is a good starting point and if you look to the left of the year 2000 most all those stacks those columns well north of the yellow line but since the year 2000 plants across and that average you can see is great testily below that yellow line for at least a decade the American employment has been dropping below potential dropping terribly below potential right and come back to that are go to this first it from credit gates from calculated risk and its remittances to Mexico from the bank of Mexico and you can see it peaked up in 2006 and seven when the was lots of construction work being done and then as construction work dropped off it drop back but it’s stepping up again and is not so much construction work it will be construction work but it’s everything else basically United States knows that to make profit they cannot employee are good white as in nonblack are workers they need black workers off the books cheap to make nice lots of profit and that’s why Mexican remittances are going up again because that big businesses are employing them and are just go back to a comment that was left on back Gavyn Davies blog because it passes is on very well points raised are all very valid but consider this the wealth lost by middle-class consumers through the recession and the housing bust have been enormous the they have the average American in his mid-60s can no longer afford to retire furthermore the culture has changed Americans don’t want to be given a watch when they turn 65 and live out their years watching television and sitting on the front porch baby boomers will want to consume and spend more in their later years than their parents and will be willing to work longer possibly in reduced hours capacity to do so I think if demand for employees was there we would see the labourforce partition participation reach new highs the good news is that potential GDP for the US is actually much higher than most project all we need to do is stimulate demand and get all those willing workers back on the job and I think that are well good points TiVos made it to a certain extent here that people will be willing to work later the trouble is where are those jobs going to come from that is the big thing point right I’ll just go to the pew research Centre in finish here rising share of America’s Americans see conflict between rich and poor and an article written written by Richard Morin which is quite funny rising share of Americans see conflict between rich and poor so started the bottom kind of here but you don’t know that London workup this is the percentage who say there is a very strong or strong conflict between these parties starting at the bottom so this is a very strong or strong conflict between the young and the old the light green is 2009 the dark rings 2011 not much conflict in either of those that polls are dates 2009 2011 think there’s much conflict between young and old that might come later it might not between blacks and whites it actually drop back from 2000 92,011 a slight increase in immigrants and nativeborn people are that’s very strong or strong conflict between these 255 to 60 to 62 starting to get worrying up towards two thirds at two thirds now we have rich and poor when it was only 47 back in 2009 preoccupy Wall Street people have done a job party identification on the same question starting at the bottom again independents have gone up from 2009 to 2000 1123 points from 45 to 68 and strangely Democrats and Republicans have gone up a very very similar amount 18 in 17 but from a different base Democrats FT 5 to 73 very large man now think this conflict between rich and poor Republicans not so much but it can increase 38 to 55 now in the article this is going up against a will start at the bottom again this is same percentage who says there’s a very strong or strong conflict between rich and poor only the rich and poor question in question here that Hispanics are gone up six not much in the blacks are gone up eight not much that they didn’t need to go up much because they thought back in 2009 there was a strong or very strong conflict between rich and for 55 and 66 in 2009 which have now been pushed up to 61 and 74 whites have gone up an awful lot 22 coming from 43 up to 65 that kind of called on to what those funny funny coloured people were thinking back in 2009 and now they think it overall there is a repeat of the number 19 from 2000 947 to 66 now two thirds of Americans thinks there is either a strong or very strong conflict between the rich and the poor and this I think is America’s dream the last dream that they get is that they think that they can in some way take the money from the rich and spread it down among what the next the 80% below are relieved 20% Forex spread the rich money from the 1% down to the 80% below and all will be well know it will not be well what the 80% below need all the 99% below need are jobs and that is where it is at and will be at the decades to come by

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  • NascentMind

    Nobody needs a Job for money, That is just slavery! Your labour should produce excess, for you, your family and society!
    Something that the current system does not do.

    • Stevo

      There are lots of jobs but unfortunately people want to be paid for doing them.  Unemployment is when people don’t think they are being paid enough to do the job.

      But if the government creates a job for you, you shall do that job whether you like it or not.  Your purpose in life is make those graphs/charts go up.

      • NascentMind

        Paid work is a slavery voucher system. People work to earn an existence in the system they think is real. (its so big now why wouldn’t they feel it’s real)
        but it is a slave system. Not a human system. we live in artificial life support system based on money flow. take away the money flow or upset its balance
        the system will collapse and most of the slaves and masters will die.
        Your CV is your slave id. and your jobs for you sites just modern slave markets.

        No slavery vouchers here just human excess to benefit the whole.

         

        An aircraft spotted them in virgin forest and took this remarkable picture.Also shown the series of photographs are large tent-like dwellings and possibly plots of cultivated land.But their language, population and society remain a mystery.

        • NascentMind
          • Stevo

            It’s the filming of the next series of I’m A Celebrity Get Me Out Of Here.

        • Stevo

          Well if you think the voucher/slavery system is shitty, imagine how upset you might feel if your country put you on draft and ordered you to walk slowly towards a machine gun nest.  What liberties some people take eh?

        • Windcutter

          I don’t think that sort of extreme statement serves any purpose.

          Slaves have no choice in what they do and are not remunerated except for food, accommodation and clothing.

          Most people have a wide range of opportunities open to them, they can choose not to work, how much to work, chose education, where they live, what they eat and wear, what iPhone to buy. There are obviously limits to their choices, but as long as there are choices available, people are not slaves.

  • integrationbyparths

    Hello Nick

    Regarding the hysteresis Gavyn Davies article, this is not unique to economics, but a rather more general idea. Let me explain with a simple example with say exercising.
    Suppose that I have been exercising regularly since a young age. Then there is a good chance that at say 50, my heart is in good shape, my cholesterol level is in control etc.
    Now suppose that I start exercising regularly only at age 40, after a physician tells me that I am at risk for diabetes. Then I won’t have as good a heart and cholesterol levels at 50, even if I do the same amount of exercise as in the previous case. Basically, my body is in a different state even though my exercising parameters are similar, simply because I started from different initial conditions.
    This phenomenon can be found in a variety of situations. In Davies’ article, I think he means to say that if we don’t properly estimate the unemployment rate, then same things the Fed does at unemployment rates of 8.5% (quantitative easing of $700 billion, very low short-term interest rates etc.) may not work at unemployment rates of 11.5%. This may be the reason why people like Krugman have always been calling for stronger stimulus.

    • http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/ Mystic

      I suspect most of `them` will concentrate on the 8.5% (for the simple reason that `most of them concentrate on the 8.5%` (Silly, but do you see what I mean~?)).

      • integrationbyparths

        Well, the democratic crowd are obviously going with the claim that the unemployment rate is 8.5%. Why don’t the republicans point out that its actually 11.5%? Probably because its not to their advantage to do so. It may be as simple as this – if we start questioning official figures when democrats are in power, then it can happen when we are in power. So both the parties know this, and hence its off limits, and not subject to scrutiny.

        In any case, I think they have only one plan to get out of this, regardless of what the unemployment rate is, and that is to create another bubble. Here’s Krugman in this 2002 article –

        http://www.nytimes.com/2002/08/02/opinion/dubya-s-double-dip.html?scp=4&sq=krugman%20mcculley%20bubble&st=cse

        “To fight this recession the Fed needs more than a snapback; it needs
        soaring household spending to offset moribund business investment. And
        to do that, as Paul McCulley of Pimco put it, Alan Greenspan needs to
        create a housing bubble to replace the Nasdaq bubble.”

        Student loans is definitely in bubble mode, but one that hasn’t yet done much for the economy here in the US. At least during the housing bubble, people “felt” rich. Quite a few people used the equity on the homes to get an SUV, go on cruises etc. However, this is not the case with student loans.

        • http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/ Mystic

          No, as you say..however bubbly it is, the student loan scam will just not cut it.

          This is why I think it has to be a Global Green Boom (a good % of GDP every year from here to eternity (probably financed straight out of central banks)).

      • integrationbyparths

        Well, the democratic crowd are obviously going with the claim that the unemployment rate is 8.5%. Why don’t the republicans point out that its actually 11.5%? Probably because its not to their advantage to do so. It may be as simple as this – if we start questioning official figures when democrats are in power, then it can happen when we are in power. So both the parties know this, and hence its off limits, and not subject to scrutiny.

        In any case, I think they have only one plan to get out of this, regardless of what the unemployment rate is, and that is to create another bubble. Here’s Krugman in this 2002 article –

        http://www.nytimes.com/2002/08/02/opinion/dubya-s-double-dip.html?scp=4&sq=krugman%20mcculley%20bubble&st=cse

        “To fight this recession the Fed needs more than a snapback; it needs
        soaring household spending to offset moribund business investment. And
        to do that, as Paul McCulley of Pimco put it, Alan Greenspan needs to
        create a housing bubble to replace the Nasdaq bubble.”

        Student loans is definitely in bubble mode, but one that hasn’t yet done much for the economy here in the US. At least during the housing bubble, people “felt” rich. Quite a few people used the equity on the homes to get an SUV, go on cruises etc. However, this is not the case with student loans.

      • Windcutter

        They have to act on the officially published figures.

        There is no way that Bernanke could publicly announce that he thinks the stats published by those that do that sort of thing are out by 30%. In the same way that Merv cannot challenge the inflation figures. If you or I experience personal inflation levels of 7% then tough luck, because it is not the official figure.

        If the UK adopted the cost of living inflation felt by a large percentage of the population, the GDP would indicate a permanent recession due to the ‘deflator’ fiddle factor.

        • http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/ Mystic

          I know what you mean………………but, the unemployment rate IS 11% (not 8.5%).
          It is not a scam, con or official manipulation…..it just IS.
          If they got the figures in and then played with them to get the rate down, then I could agree with you..but, as I say, no manipulation……..just looking at the wrong number.

          It just needs a `man` to say, “Hello, this is silly”.
          The only thing against it, is people in power tend not to go in for the `man` sort of actions.

  • http://maxwellsrepublic.tumblr.com/ maxwell

    A jobs issue for decades. Could that be a bit presumptive? I can certainly agree that we’ll see it high on the list of issues at the voting booths into the next few election cycles. Will this still be the top issue in 2020? I don’t know and I’m certainly not qualified to critique your commentary, but I have a feeling that jobs isn’t the root cause of our troubles.

    • http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/ Mystic

      Jobs are the most obvious manifestation of our troubles.
      It is the manifestation that will most directly touch the real lives of the real people.

  • Stevo

    I was brought up to call them “graphs” rather than “charts”.  Charts to me were nautical maps used to navigate around coastlines and land safely at the nearest port with a pub in it.

    As for the unemployment rate, if the data don’t fit the argument, massage the data rather than change the argument.  Pull those lazy wealthy retired bums off their sofas and tell them they have to stop watching daytime TV and that they must instead look for work.  There are also about 20 million more people working than the official US data suggests.  These are Mexicans and foreign students who are working illegally and never asked to answer a question.

    There was an interesting guest on CNBC yesterday.  He had examined productivity data since 1990 across OECD countries and came to the conclusion that the reason Italian productivity was so low was because the Italians had so much money stuffed in the bank, and that when people feel that wealthy the desire to work is eliminated.  And there is plenty of black market activity in Club Med countries that never appears in official figures.  A bit of energetic tax reform would work wonders on their deficit.

    100 days left of Sarkozy (unless he teams up with the National Front and they start beating up Muslims on street corners).

    No wonder the French have such a high unemployment rate when you examine their unemployment benefit payments (SJR).  For under 50’s they get 2 years SJR and for over 50’s 3 years of SJR.  And for that period you get paid 57% of your previous salary.  No wonder they cannot be bothered to look for a job.  And it’s even more generous if they lose their job through redundancy.  A reasonable job offer is considered to be 95% of the previous salary earnt.  In comparison in the UK you get 3 months unemployment benefit (Job Seekers Allowance) before you have to take the first job offered regardless of salary.  Pretty well explains the difference between UK and French unemployment rates.  And that doesn’t include the EU subsidies French farmers get paid.

    http://www.french-property.com/news/money_france/unemployment_benefits/

    Has that biochemist lady professor in Northern California applied yet for one of the 1,400 job vacancies available with HERC yet?  Why create more jobs when there are so many unemployed who simply do not like working for a boss.

    Yours truly, sceptical.

  • James

    “Sometimes it is said that man cannot be trusted with the government
    of himself. Can he, then, be trusted with the government of others? Or
    have we found angels in the form of kings to govern him? Let history
    answer this question.”

    Thomas Jefferson

    Multi Sov is kind of Global Government we were discussing years ago. Sovereigns reached their size limitations and are bust( but who says they cannot go on a little longer ? ). Their debt may be liquidated ( by CBs and the people ).
    http://news.yahoo.com/apnewsbreak-obama-seeks-power-merge-agencies-110243338.html

    The multi idea, is the consolidation of (x) into a higher level. ( reminder ~ 1 , that’s eurobond, ESM, EFSF, IMF, SDR, United States of America, Europe, Pan Asia etc )
    There has to be a reformed/unified way of boosting Global %GDP by Central authorities/authority.

    The next questions arising at some later point : how about the individual sovereignty of countries.
    Do we think that the Sovereigns will ‘give power’ to a higher level authority, so easily ?

    The Multi Sovereign – supranational currency, is the ultimate free Market, because its the check and balance, the self-regulation mechanism of excess and imbalances. Its what the USA did not want to follow ( reserve currency ).

    ( we all owe an apology to bigcollapso, especially the administrators )

    • James

      The “freedom” republican campaign shows, the antithesis of current dynamics. It has nothing to do with any leaders.

      The problem with increasing taxes in an retaliatory way ( Government = I am the leader of the country, you do not spend and buy my bonds, I will tax you to take it ), is that the capital tends to hoard and then flee. Money is leaving/left the Meds and going to Germany. There has to be exchange controls then again.

      ( we all owe an apology to bigcollapso, especially the administrators )

      • http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/ Mystic

        You apologies away~!
        (but don’t be telling me who and what to apologies to and for~!…..(Or I’ll block you again~!)  Capiche~?)

        • James

          ( we all owe an apology to bigcollapso, especially the administrators )

          • James

            The guy has never talked you back. EVER

            • James

              You should have block you pal Richard, like ages ago. You hear !

              • James

                He comes hear only to have fun and mock people, because he does not understand anything, he says.
                you hear !

  • Windcutter

    If you can’t pay, you don’t get.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-10/greek-crisis-has-pharmacists-pleading-for-aspirin-as-drug-supply-dries-up.html 

    Government price intervention in Greece has had the (foreseeable) effect that companies sell drugs for more outside Greece, and that no more credit is being given.

    Just another headache for Greece, pity they can’t obtain the aspirin.

  • James

    ( we all owe an apology to bigcollapso, especially the administrators )

  • James

    ( we all owe an apology to bigcollapso, especially the administrators )

  • James

    ( we all owe an apology to bigcollapso, especially the administrators )

  • James

    ( we all owe an apology to bigcollapso, especially the administrators )

  • James

    ( we all owe an apology to bigcollapso, especially the administrators )

  • James

    ( we all owe an apology to bigcollapso, especially the administrators )

  • James

    ( we all owe an apology to bigcollapso, especially the administrators )

  • James

    ( we all owe an apology to bigcollapso, especially the administrators )

  • James

    ( we all owe an apology to bigcollapso, especially the administrators )

  • James

    ( we all owe an apology to bigcollapso, especially the administrators )

  • James

    ( we all owe an apology to bigcollapso, especially the administrators )

    • snedmeister1

      Temper temper, James….
      If you don’t want your views to be under intense scrutiny, don’t post…!!!

      I’m sure BC is mature enough to know this, as are most ( and I stress most ) others here….

      I wonder why people come here to moan about the content on OTP…
      If you don’t like it, don’t spend time here… It really is that simple…..

      If I didn’t like it, I would not come back, and the site would carry on just fine without me…..

      • James

        Personally, I did not moan about the content of OTP. I was obviously trying to inform giving material, or give other viewpoints.
        Intense scrutiny ? Did you see others do the same ?
        But , just , there is also a hope or opportunity that things can improve ! everywhere, Sned

        • James

          and its not about BC. I feel bad for that ( we all do ! ). you hear me ?

          • snedmeister1

            “You hear me”….???

            Grow up, James….

            You’re going to need thicker skin in the big wide world than you need here…. 

            • James

              its all the same thing, Sned.

              But indeed, its simpler and better for all, to just leave the site. Adios

              • snedmeister1

                I remember you saying that not too long ago….
                Trying to get the last word, and show how “You always win”…

                You will be back, if only to look….

                You’re quite predictable….

                • James

                  that is how your tricky mind, still plays Sned.
                  I have changed.

                  • snedmeister1

                    I knew you would be back….

                    Adios…!!!

                  • James

                    I am nothing indeed. You nailed it on the head.

  • Anonymous

    Like so many aspects of the economic twilight zone we find ourselves in, I suspect the unemployment situation is just as complex, convoluted, and opaque.  A friend of mine owns and operates a computer networking consulting business that is headquartered in a small town.   He employees 4 to 5 full-time people (based on contract workload at a given point in time).  He lost an employee about 4 months ago, and has been unable to find a replacement.  Although there a many qualified candidates who have posted resumes online, it seems that none of them are willing to leave (or commute from) the large metropolitan areas to accept gainful employment in a small town. The level of remuneration being offer to candidates is comparable to other firms performing the same services.

    It appears that being unemployed in the big city is preferred to being gainfully employed in the small town.  Of course the prevalence of situations like this one is unknown (and probably unknowable), but it is indicative of the many “quirky variables” in the big picture. 
     
    Also, even with the high unemployment rates, the US Government is issuing hundreds of thousands of work visas for engineers and technical workers every year. 
     
    One has to wonder how much distortion is being caused by liberal and ever extending unemployment benefits paid to workers by the government.  In an attempt to “help”, could the government actually be forestalling needed regional adjustments and redeployment of labor, based on real-world demand?  I’m guessing yes. 

    • http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/ Mystic

      I believe the common `meme` (something everyone knows) at the top is, that bigger cities are much more 21st century than little towns.