Talk is easy.

Here is a rough transcription of the presentation for people who are hard of hearing. Apologies for the lack of grammar, I am working to improve the automated transcriptions –
hello it’s today today that starting United States of America with durable goods orders handed done short chart overlapping them therein read the durable goods over the stock market the S&P in blue and you can see they’re pretty coincident that one goes up the other goes up high would say that if anything the durable goods orders just about precedes the S&P stock market maybe maybe not but you see since the depths of the great recession durable goods orders have been coming in stronger and stronger and stronger and they look arm unstoppably strong the moment they just consistently going up and up so maybe that’ll push the stock market backup because it has to be good news next what housing tracker final report of asking prices in 54 metropolitan areas for September is in house prices and it shows that the year-on-year rate of declines continue to lessen now only -1.7% year-on-year knows the updated chart I went to housing tracker to check on these figures and couldn’t find these actual figures in housing tracker but arm I’m going to hope that their right you can imagine there about right if you read down the am and the years 2007 you can sit starting with the -2-3 then it goes -567 2008 was getting horribly worse minus is always of course -789 1011 2009 started with 11 then went up to 12 hours about the Picts man and then it got better with 987 6545 is 2000 intends were 56 and seven is being see 2011 with a bad start -8 and 765 4291 it’s getting worse less than have to say it it’s not getting as bad slower anyway not bad Blumberg borrowing costs plummeting across the United States for local governments in Munich credit this was supposed to be the worst year ever for United States and municipalities instead they are obtaining money at the lowest interest rates in more than two years after predictions of rising defaults failed to materialise Meredith Whitney have been one representative of the prediction for our great amount of busts in the newly market but they’re getting their rollover costs and new borrowing very cheaply and when it comes down to is all a lot of money circulating round the world is a lot of money in America, where are you going to put it when push comes to shove and keep it in America if it’s American and if it’s outside the world where are you going to bet that is better than America into very hard choice so if in doubt go with a big guy so the on going out into the world in the the potential of the big guy China China’s African mischief this article is written in Tokyo as Libya’s National transitional council attempts to establish a functioning government for a newly liberated country truth about what went on under Col Mama held Gaddafi’s regime is starting to come to light various treasures have been unearthed from Tripoli mansions that were hastily vacated by their owners and what happened to tortured and murdered and the missing is beginning to be revealed so too are some of Gadhafi’s dirtiest diplomatic secrets being exposed on September to the Canadian newspaper the Globe and mail reported on recent negotiations between the embattled the Gaddafi regime and Chinese armaments companies with direct ties to China government for contracts worth $200 million of imagine that all Chinese are on the companies have direct ties to the China government anyway such contracts were in flagrant violation of the arms embargo instituted under UN Security Council resolution 1970 of which China approved China’s been pushing out into the world and Africa being one of the major places it’s been pushing out to and it’s obviously trans-guests transgressing and boundaries as it does push out and as it down pushes up against old established old world boundaries it pushing up against those as well it has been very careful to tread softly but inevitably it will have transgressed some boundaries this chart this is the price of copper probably indicates arm a boundary for China and the emerging markets this is a long chart of copper wire goes back to middle of 2010 but at the business end since August of this year you can see it had a plateau from August to September but really it’s been on the down and down and this represents more than definitely more than definitely more than probably are a real turndown in Chinese production and overall economy turnover and probably for all emerging markets as well and if China turns down the remaining other countries that are now plugged so much into China that they will directly turndown with them Brazil to an extent being one of them this article are taken from our think it’s Blumberg arm it starts Brazil has 27 but I didn’t cross that out that that was political parties it has 27 political parties and they were mocking the United States of America who have only got two solar a lot better with 27 in-vivo reset 63 next Tillman Bruce F inherited just about everything a president could want from a mental or and predecessor Louise Dinas Euroland deaths in the an economy growing at seven aha annual pace and unemployment at 5.3% that was the lowest since at least 2001 Brazil’s Bob Vespa stock market index rose sixfold during Lula’s eight-year tenure as I nor soya bean and sugar exports boomed driven in large part by demand from China number pulled to a half 24 1/2 million people out of poverty in his years in office according to Dalla compiled by good tailor your biogas foundation and Bruce F says that in the next four years she will eliminate extreme poverty in Brazil

Start a miracle subdued and unfortunately for Tillman Bruce F 63 she is not going to get what she wants life just does not go like that you cannot follow somebody like eight years of luminous soup Gramercy fantastic this and expect it to continue it just won’t because life is not like that so I prediction who’s going to be president of Russia next this ugly little boy Wolf I don’t buy that photo one bit about this one this is when you was working in the is the Russian secret service thing called anyway when you work for them but he’s made the big time now he’s been present he’s been Prime Minister and final link number eight Moscow on Saturday afternoon for an Amir Putin announced that he would finally sink reality with formality and become Russia’s actual president yet again once the initial sting wore off Putin seems on track to rule as long as Stalin because he got Medvedev to say well you can rule to lots of six years now wasn’t ferment Medvedev at was four when Putin came back so he’ll take the next six and then the next six if he wants to from this article never perhaps more urgent explanation is the impatience of the market in the AV explanation why Putin has have all this decision forward at least $50 billion have leapt out of Russia this year that’s just one of many miserable economic indicators that point to be trouble ahead ruble at a two-year low sliding domestic stock market indexes a budget that could barely be balanced even if oil were still at $116 a barrel date 107 Brent Siberian oilfields are in decline and it will be decades before Arctic drilling comes online if it ever does centre of world oil production is shifting increasingly to the Americas then is the looming economic crisis in Europe scraping at the door none of it frankly looks very good so Putin’s goal on Saturday may have been to step in and put a firm hand on the wheel to assure everyone that the system was in fact functional at such a sensitive moment the day before behind the scenes of the first day of the convention one of his strategists told the European news channel it’s not the time to experiment with big political change in times such as economic uncertainty Putin’s return for potentially 12 years was supposed to signal an end to talk of such an experiment the speeches he made at the conference including the one about the government’s duty to give bitter medicine were supposed to reassure foreign investors that he would implement urgent reforms or as the famous Kremlinologists all go fish than non-sky had told me the other day modernise or die I would guess there will be more dying down modernise Russia not a happy history will it be a happy future I doubt it CF

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  • snedmeister1

    Good evening Nick.

    Interestingly, there has been little talk of “operation twist” on here lately…..

    Link 8 has given me the prompt to raise some questions…

    Bernanke’s planned way of improving things has had me thinking for a week or so, and the possibilities are so
    complex, that it is hard to picture what is the objective and  possible accepted collateral damage…

    I have come to the conclusion, as is mentioned in your presentation, that the idea is to help US mortgages.
    I get that, but the next bit perplexes me…

    Several ideas thrown out there talk of the reduced bank profits as the yield curve flattens, and this makes sense.
    But I can’t help but feel that Ben knows this…??

    Is he hoping to force banks to make more loans to achieve the profits they made previously on the steeper yield curve..??
    Or is he just accepting that he can’t achieve everything with monetary policy…???

    Secondly, I have thought about the low end interest rate rising, due to the purchase of long term treasuries being funded by the sale of short term treasuries…. This, could stop Ben’s plan to keep low end rates at their current levels until mid 2013..!!

    Then…….

    I have been thinking, that the FED rate is driven by the amount of reserves in the system, and thus demand for inter bank loans….. 
    Maybe the short end will not rise, as the NET banking reserves in the system are not changed..??

    As you can see, I am not being too successful in working this one out….!!!

    Oh to be a fly on the wall in Ben’s house eh..??

    • http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/ Mystic

      Hello Saturday Sned,
      Ben and the Banksters – I think we have a Janus thing going on.  ((Roman god of gates and doors), imagine standing at a gate….possibility of looking in /out, backwards / forwards.
      The banks have problems now.  They have loans that are not being repaid in full.  Ben looks (backwards) at these old loans and goes for a plan that will help with them………that is, reduce the interest rates in general, so that in aggregate the individual loans should be easier to pay.  I think that is as far as he has got (looking backwards).

      Now, we look at these plans and ask, `how will they do looking forwards~?` and we find the picture is not so pretty, but Ben hasn’t turned his head yet, to see this `new year` (Janus….root of January).

      [In the background the Fed can always do their normal job on the short end.]

      All in all, I see it as an abandonment of the future, in order to tidy up the past. 

      • snedmeister1

        Really, this is a reply to your video link above to my comment, but I thought I would reply here..:)

        Although my initial questions were covered early on, at about the hour mark, the lecturer mentions the disconnect
        between M2 and the economic output and inflation etc….

        The vid states that this happened in 1990’s and gives a vague explanation of why he feels this happened….

        My initial thought was it’s more to do with less and less trickle down to the workers, causing stagnant wages etc….
        Did this trend of more wealth to the top, rather than letting it trickle down begin about 1990’s also…???

        Thanks again for the Vid Nick, it gives me something to think about on this fine Saturday morning..!!

    • http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/ Mystic

      If you really don’t have anything better to do this week-end –
      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GQ9UGKJ1W1E&feature=youtu.be&a

      • snedmeister1

        Thanks Nick.

        Just had some of my questions answered at 15 min mark…

        I’m gonna write off cutting the grass for another hour and watch the rest, just to give me something to think 
        about for the morning, while I drag the lawn mower around..!!

        I had a feeling Ben would still remember the promise of low end rates until into 2013, and this vid addresses my concern
        on this…

  • Garryentropy

    I thought that PC comment would bug you, bugged me too, I like the  graph lets call a spade a spade reality, my reaction also, thanks for keeping it real nick,

  • CSArichardo

    Driving down the long end of the bond market gives the holders of those bond a further capital gain.  If banks are big holders their books will therefore look better.  At some point the smart banks will start to sell the long end to the fed and cash out thus locking in huge capital gains, great profits and great bonuses.  It is all about helping to fix the past problems still as per Nick’s comment.  The long bond is becoming a major time bomb for the small investor.  They need to get out now too.