The global adult shortage

Here is a rough transcription of the presentation for people who are hard of hearing. Apologies for the lack of grammar, I am working to improve the automated transcriptions -
who Wednesday and carry on from yesterday a thing in the United States of America housing and the bigger the loan that the longer the foreclosure when it comes to foreclosing and apparently this is happening more and more now lenders see some delinquent homeowners is more equal than others mortgage debt of more than half $1 million seems to get lenders to look the other way for an extra month compared to those who owe far less interesting the barriers no great order from above it’s just the natural process that I’m down in the banks they are slower to send out the ad delinquent papers are on rich people the second one is a chart are which has got on it Treasuries and their corporate yields and this is obviously the question where should you put your money because suddenly people are rushing into Treasuries and as you receive from all our lives really since 1954 you got more money investing in Treasuries that the blackline the interest coupon has been more if you go into Treasuries than you would get on the tyre yield power dividend yield from a corporate buying stocks could when you buy the shares obviously get it for quite a lot of companies you get the dividend as well so the dividend is being a lot lower than owning Treasuries but Treasuries have been coming down and down and down lately and people still piling into them because of the safety and am but dividend yields on the corporate equities is now going up slowly and it’s good it’s a good chance that these will cross again like they did before 1954 when the yields were higher than you got from the coupon of the Treasury every Bloomberg on China China August home prices rise in not all cities challenging government curbs central government is trying to calm all this down because they know that it getting out of control of the local and the the the the the regions states: are have got a bit of a Ponzi scheme going that they’ve the state orange shoes quantities of money and the only way that they can pay that money back is by keeping the housing all real estate Ponzi scheme are turning over in keeping housing prices going up and they getting coming from that are real estate turnover and then they can pay their debts if it all falls down than the state will be able to pay their debts so they’re defying central government tricky in China the article is China’s August new home prices rose in all 70 cities monitored for the first time this year undercutting government efforts to cool the market through higher down payment mortgage rates Bloomberg again China China’s stocks fall to 14 month low on tightening concerns/IPOs initial public offerings China’s stocks fell to 14 month low after Premier Wen jibe are all click said the government will take measures to control inflation and investors speculated pending initial public offerings will sap demand for existing equities that the lows of new companies are going to go onto the market and that might take money from the companies that are already on the market but basically their feet from fearing the central government will get on top of things and will exert their power to contain inflation with all the manipulations that they are doing third Bloomberg China this China slowdown moons as inflation limits stimulus XP BOC People’s Bank of China official says China’s economy is highly likely to slow next year and efforts to spur growth will be constrained by inflation and government debt burdens those will be the local debt burdens presumably the state government debt burdened says we will you’re leaning a former deputy central bank governor so he saying that things might slowdown next year and the government will not have the manoeuvrability to a pot stimulus in and they won’t want to because that would only take inflation off-again fourth Bloomberg China China may add $728 billion of stimulus says Deutsche bank Deutsche bank said that China may roll out economic stimulus as much as $728 billion including subsidies on consumer goods in the event of a global slump next year similes right somebody’s wrong with the well a bit of a linkage for everybody EU to urge US Japan to act on public deficits at the G 20 that can be another G 20 meeting at the barest of them afloat the wall a European union will: China this week not form of money that the to boost domestic demand you EU is telling China to boost domestic demand and then is calling on United States and Japan to tackle their public debt of deficits as part of a global effort to rebalance growth shown in EU document that should be funny EU telling China to our sell more washing machines to their people when they really should be telling Germany to sell more or buy more olive oil Greek olive oil and tell United States and Japan to get their public deficits under control pops kettle back so this is Bobbies zone lick her who’s the boss at the World Bank is being interviewed here under a heading of the interview what does Europe need to do to address its crisis all Bobbies Erlich says up to this point the European Union has been taking emergency liquidity steps ECB is very very very constrained in what it can do is really out stepped into boundaries by a long long way when it was set up only been in existence what 12 years or something have very very constrained parameters about what it could do and it’s it’s well past that now integrate basically broken every single parameter that it was set up with so calling on ECB to do everything is a bit wrong until you change in law what the ECB is allowed to do it anyway knowing the European Union and its governance Cenozoic these haven’t been easy so I am not seeking to be critical of what has been accomplished but what struck me in the summer particularly as the markets started to move on Italian and Spanish bonds was that the muddling through approach which is standard for governments has run its course my assessment is that Europe’s leaders have to make some decisions about the interrelated fundamentals if in doubt couple words together the town of sovereign debt the banks and competitiveness of sort that out with even with liquidity support that buys time what the markets started to perceive in the summer was that absent decisions on the fundamentals there will be further incidents and political events that will prompt challenges by the markets bit weaselly worded isn’t it really another word he’s just saying offshore which they sort it out so I’m going to finish with an article by Will Hutton who is apparently some important people listen to him in United Kingdom anyway writing an article in the Observer and the some goods stuff at the start of it but ice I’m going to get to where I think he runs the vehicle into quicksand East’s jolly to start with bouncing across the tundra in his four-wheel-drive and everything fine but then so let’s go with it reasonably long 80 years ago faced with today’s economic events nobody would have been in any doubt we would obviously be living through a crisis in capitalism in other words the old people they would have recognised instead there is a collective unwillingness to call a spade a spade this is variously a crisis of the European Union the crisis of the Euro debt crisis or a crisis of political will it is all those things but they are subplots of a much bigger story the way capitalism has been conceived and practised for the last 30 years has hit the buffers unless and until that is recognise Western economies will be locked in stagnation which could even transmute into a major economic disaster good starting we go on simply put the world has fillings upon trillions of excessive private debt financed by too many different currencies whose risk is allegedly mitigated by even more trillions of financial bets which in aggregate do not minimise the stiff stem it risk one iota is a bit of a clang clang of alarm there with simply put the world has trillions upon trillions of excessive private debt financed by too many different currencies I think he’s got an idea in his mind if this entire financial edifice underwritten by tiny amounts of capital has been created over three decades backed by the theory that markets do not make mistakes the efficient market hypothesis capitalism is best conceived and practised runs the theory by hunter gatherers bankers and entrepreneurs owing no allegiance to the state of society dubious this is nonsense business and the state code generate wealth in the system of complex mutual dependence I know a lot of people won’t like the idea that are that even the state of his party to the cogeneration but we we do accept that by building infrastructure and policing things it creates an atmosphere where the capitalist can operate efficiently markets are set by mood swings and uncertainty which if not offset by government action lead to violent oscillations capitalism without responsibility or proportionality degrades into racketeering and exploitation I think that’s fair enough given half a chance freemarket capitalism will degenerate I’ll go that far the prospect of limitless pay is an open invitation to bad year or even criminal behaviour good capitalism cannot happen without referees to blow the whistle on robust frameworks in which markets can function neither is reliably created by capitalism itself hence the role of a democratic government again also fair enough because of its are I’ll either look at let’s put it this way capitalism like arm are a bunch of teenagers lots of energy lots of will to do lots of things but also integrates propensity to run out of control and parental guidance they don’t have the parent us after becoming what to do all the time just have to to be there to save Warlow stop there setting the boundaries yet the world is trying to solve the legacy of the last 30 years as if none of this was true and instead that the practice and theory is that created the mess are still valid US Treasury Secretary Tim Guyton joining the EU finance ministers in Poland as again they pondered how best to end the ongoing Euro crisis was the least recognising today’s interdependencies between countries when he urged his fellow ministers to stop bickering because the markets were terrified by the threat of a catastrophic event with all the risk that that pose to the United States so the adults are kind of getting together the parents of the tip children are getting together and saying her arm will have to get together and sort this out okay move on to the last paragraph where I think he goes off the rails and into this quicksand George Osborne was also right to declare that the strong euro was in Britain’s interest are strong euros in Britain’s interest no need to go into that but worrying about how I fail Euro might impact on yourself is all speak this is starting to get slippy but worrying about how I fail Euro might impact on yourself it’s all speak this is kind of Newspeak this is kind of don’t don’t think pessimistically as long as you think optimistically and drive forward things will be well it ain’t necessarily so what the markets need to hear is that Western politicians whether in the Eurozone or not see the Euro as part of the potential solution to capitalism’s current crisis not its cause and that they are prepared to do all in their power to support the reforms necessary to make the Euro survive and take other measures vital to make the world financial system function again biker and Osborne must put some money where their mouths are I can’t either analyte and analogise this by the got the market which are the teenagers doing their thing the parents are there and every now and then said no stop there don’t do that otherwise carry on what we have here is the parents the governments the politicians have created something themselves the Euro the teenagers said I wouldn’t do that if I were yellow but they did and now this man is saying that everybody the teenagers should stop playing and come and sort out the mess that the parents of made but the teenagers don’t do that sort that they stand there in depth you made an air sea made a Mayoress so what is saying now is all the wealth, wealth that is created by the joint efforts of the teenagers and parents the free capital capitalism markets and government should be used to maintain the mess that the parents the governments of made because otherwise society the whole parent of a teenager relationship will break down the CC and aways right but it’s not natural it’s very contrived and teenagers will not be forced into that sort of action and the parents do not have what it takes to sort it out on their own so the parents should do the adult thing and admit they made a mistake and when there done that that might be a chance of sorting things out because then with honesty out there even the teenagers might help I would guarantee that the first honesty it’s the adult thing to do slimmer by

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  • Haploid

    evening Nick,
     
    funny old presentation today especially that last one on Hutton but I guess it’s the self-coping mechanism projecting itself against what really are some dire circumstances.
     
      that last presentation reminds you of a house-warming do where some adult members end up getting too drunk and making complete idiots of themslves; but instead we have governments who have gotten drunk on cheap money and the rest of it .. Anyway the markets will probably take full advantage and refuse to go along with the modus-operandi, it’ll make full use of this adult-child relationship but won’t “do as mummy or daddy says” instead it’ll play a sort of “I told you so” in reverse and look to leverage it up, seen as a comeppance for their irresponsible and reckless behaviour.

    Honesty is the best policy but I don’t think that’s possible at this stage although stranger things have happened. 
    SO in light of this I reckon the euro area should just agree on this fiscal integration idea where germany gets to be in charge of fiscal policy for all the euro members.
    Now, I know that would get all the masses with nationlistic tendencies up in arms but nationalism is a blight on society, humanity even and the sooner people stop thinking along the lines of nationlistic boundaries and instead open their hearts to continental horizons the better this will be for all, perhaps  – worth a new experiement anyway.
    Also let’s face it, people will always be controlled by a few elites who mostly turn out to be big schmucks in the end so if you’re resigned to be being controlled anyway you might as well be controlled by those who, some would consider, to be the least of all the schmucks.
    Germany does have a pretty decent track record for what its worth, 2 world wars and still the powerhouse of europe advanced economy compared to other european nations and generally just does things in a far more efficient way.

    Who knows, if this comes to some sort of fruition then may be we can all  ‘be like germany’ after a verrrrryyy long time I would imagine – it’s a start anyway.  Although I hope one thing that existing nations dont import is the scat tendancies as documented in some article from a WEN series of yours Nick, in despiegel I believe.

    • http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/ Mystic

      As you say, honesty is not on the horizon……..So no one knows what is going on~!
      So, how can anyone accept big changes~?
      They can’t….they won’t~!

      So, no big changes = same same = kids pointing and chanting `you got no clothes on….you got no clothes on`.

      No, this is no way to get big changes accepted. 

      Changes will happen, but my money would be on `destructive` not `constructive`.

      • Haploid

        Yeah I must admit I do see it your way Nick, destructive happening will occur but its such a shame because if the masses were to accept what I mention it might actually be a step in the right direction; it’s ironic because the masses have taken so much crap from governments as they’ve gotten bigger in the past but body has actually taken things into their own hands, with any avail atleast.  So now, if governments were to adopt this fiscal integration idea that might be just what sets everyone and actually frightens all these dastardly politicians into backing off,when it could well possibly be the way forward.

        • Haploid

          sorry I just realised there were some missing words in there (problems since upgrading IE)

          Yeah I must admit I do see it your way Nick, destructive happening will occur but its such a shame because if the masses were to accept what I mention it might actually be a step in the right direction; it’s ironic because the masses have taken so much crap from governments as they’ve gotten bigger in the past but nobody has actually taken things into their own hands, with any avail atleast. So now, if governments were to adopt this fiscal integration idea that might be just what sets everyone off and actually frightens all these dastardly politicians into backing off,when it could well possibly be the way forward.

        • http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/ Mystic

          They have had time to prepare.  They did not prepare.
          PPPPPPPPPP etc. 

  • Anonymous

    Will Hultton (aka Lord Keynes) eh… He always has a few good things to say… Mmixedt up with some contrivance.

  • Windcutter

    “We’re too good to work”.

    That’s the attitude of the UK yoof at 20% unemployment.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/jobs/8777177/Youngsters-put-off-work-by-crap-jobs-says-CIPD.html

    Today’s yoof seems to think it deserves a great life served on a platter. A job is a job, and should be seen as an opportunity to advance and earn some money. I don’t quite understand how they all afford these ‘gap years’ and ’round the world travel’ itineraries nowadays. Maybe it is all on the ‘never never’.

    Even though I was in the lucky generation to have my university course free, I still had to work my bollocks off in the holidays to save and pay for living expenses. I could never afford a ‘gap year’.

    Well, the yoof have a big lesson heading their way. 

    Life is hard and money has to be earned, 

    • http://overthepeak.com/wordpress/ Mystic

      A friend of mine is doing a mini-round-the-world (big bus type job), but he is doing it because he is taking early retirement (after working for 40 years)…………So no, I don’t know how they do it (borrow money probably).

      You will be able to ask them when you see them~!

    • http://abellia.myopenid.com/ Andrew

      Why should people do crap jobs for crap wages?  To allow others to profit?

      If it is work that really needs to be done, why not let everyone have a hand in it?

  • http://abellia.myopenid.com/ Andrew

    I had watched an earlier video about an incredible glut of apartments in China that are too pricey for people to buy.  Is this a regional issue?  Have things shifted?